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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 21, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'm getting this column squeaked out right after the eclipse (where the skies cleared wonderfully at the last minute - it was great meeting those who came. Thank you for the kind words about that event and this column).  Today (Monday - a holiday for you?) will be warm and dry - with southwest wind flow over the state.  The next storm moves in tonight and will be covering the state by Tuesday AM (Figure 1).

Figure 2 shows that the strongest period of lift and up slope flow will be brief - mainly 9pm to 12am tonight, but some showers are possible off into Tuesday midday.  This model gives us a coating to an inch (down slope flow will dominate the storm for areas north of Boulder up I-25). Figure 3, the GFS, gives us a coating to 1 inch as well.  The forecasters at weather5280.com (Figure 4) hand-drew this forecast and put it on their discussion column Sunday night.  They gave Longmont 0-2 inches of snow.  Everything seems to be in agreement that we won't get much snow (and you can see the down slope effects north of Boulder along I-25 here as well).

The longer range forecast:

From Figure 2 there is another 0 to 1 inch storm expected Thursday and something out a week from not that end up being about 1 inch in depth.  Beggars can't be choosers with the weather - I guess.  More on those storms in the days to come!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Tuesday AM. From NCEP.

Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 3: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Tuesday night.

Figure 4: the hand drawn snowfall forecast from the forecasters at weather5280.com (highly recommend reading their info as well!!).

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

66°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.85 Steady
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
25%
Wind
WSW 3.8 mph
Gust
9.5 mph
Wind Chill
66 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 PM
67°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
62°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
52°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Monday

68 °F

Partly sunny with a shower in spots late this afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Windy in the morning; mostly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Clearing


Partly sunny w/ showers

Wednesday

65 °F

Periods of clouds and sun, becoming breezy with a passing shower in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

39 °F

A thundershower in parts of the area in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

59 °F

Windy in the morning; intervals of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

32 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Friday

65 °F

Some sun


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:02 AM
Sunset
7:54 PM

Based on AccuWeather data