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Update 8am: Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 6, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

8am Update:

The high wind warnings have been expanded today.  Peak winds will occur between 11am and 4pm.  Channel 4 news predicted up to 100mph winds in the Foothills in wind prone areas.

Figure 1 update: current state weather warnings and advisories fro weatherunderground.com

End 8am Update.

Super nice decoration-removing weather keeps on going.  I almost started on the front yard lights yesterday. There is a lee trough and some moisture moving in, leading to cloudy skies later in the day on Saturday (Figure 1).  There is a lot of rainfall and snowfall hitting the western U.S. and desert southwest.

Later today, the trough creating all that unsettled weather moves towards us (red line in Figure 2 over Colorado), but the Rockies will wring out the moisture and we'll see nothing to nearly nothing but warm down slope flow.  A flurry or sprinkle might be possible to I-25 north of Denver tonight and tomorrow AM.  Don't count on it being much (Figure 3).

Figure 1: The current surface map from Saturday PM and the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Sunday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 3: The forecast surface map for Sunday PM. From NCEP.

The longer range forecast:

The snowfall for the next 5 days from the GFS shows up to a foot in places in the higher mountains (what a season it has been on THAT side of the Divide!!) - Figure 4. Even over the next 10 days, we'll be lucky to see an inch (according to this model - Figure 5).

WeatherBell.com is still asserting its Winter forecast.  Figure 6 shows us just a bit below normal in temperatures. Figure 7 has us a bit above normal in snowfall.  A lot of catch-up needs to occur for this forecast to still come true.  We'll watch it here!

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, for the next 5 days.

Figure 5: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, for the next 10 days.

Figure 6: The Nov - March temperature forecast departure from normal from publicly released data from WeatherBell

Figure 7: The Nov - March snowfall forecast departure from normal from publicly released data from WeatherBell

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

65°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
29.88 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
21%
Wind
SE 4.8 mph
Gust
11.7 mph
Wind Chill
65 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
64°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
59°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 PM
57°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
42°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

65 °F

Becoming cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

35 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

71 °F

Pleasant with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

46 °F

Partly cloudy


Cloudy

Monday

60 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a shower in spots; windy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Monday Night

41 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:58 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM

Based on AccuWeather data