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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 7, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The headline for today (and the reason I'm posting earlier than normal on Sunday PM):

High Wind Warning

Issued: 12:31 PM Jan. 6, 2019 – National Weather Service

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM MST MONDAY...

** See Figure 2 below **

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a High Wind

Warning, which is in effect from 8 AM to 10 PM MST Monday. The

High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* WINDS...West 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* TIMING...Monday morning through Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...High profile vehicles will be susceptible to

dangerous cross winds. Areas of blowing dust will be possible

with visibilities reduced to one mile or less. Possible power

outages caused by downed power lines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected

or occurring. Strong winds may lead to property damage. Hazardous

driving conditions due to powerful cross winds will pose a

serious risk for drivers, especially for light weight and

high profile vehicles. Loose outdoor items should be brought

inside or secured properly.

Figure 1 shows the storm squeezing its water out on the Colorado western slopes - we get the energy (heating) from the precipitation formation linked to the powerful jet stream overhead to give us warming and (sometimes) violent down slope winds from later Sunday PM to Monday PM. Tie down any decorations you haven't put away yet.

Figure 3 is the noon time sustained wind speeds. That is widespread strong steady winds!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Monday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 2: Extent of high wind warning for Sunday PM- Monday PM from the NWS.

Figure 3: The forecast surface winds and isobar map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, for Monday noon.

The longer range forecast:

We stay in the 50's F (above normal temperatures) for the next 10 days. The GFS does not show Longmont getting any snow or rain during that time. That can change, but things are unlikely to be largely different from what you've seen later in December through today. Sorry, I wish I could make it snow.

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, for the next 10 days.

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

58°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.92 Steady
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
35%
Wind
E 3.3 mph
Gust
6.2 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
53°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
42°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
40°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
39°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
37°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
35°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

65 °F

Becoming cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

35 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

71 °F

Pleasant with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

46 °F

Partly cloudy


Cloudy

Monday

60 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a shower in spots; windy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Monday Night

41 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:58 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM

Based on AccuWeather data