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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – July 17-19, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Dry westerly flow aloft and warming down slope westerly winds will send us to near record heat for the next three days. There will be almost no chance of rain again until Saturday as moisture returns and temperatures drop.

Forecast Discussion:

Dry air is streaming into the state (Figure 1 - red coloration). Westerly surface winds will create down-slope flow that further warms the air (bottom graph in Figure 3). The upper levels will see a big high pressure system (blue H's in Figure 2) cover the region. Temperatures will keep rising and dry down slope air = no rain.

The Long Range Forecast:

The next three days will see nearly record high temperatures (100+F should occur Thursday and probably Friday). The ridge relaxes as a trough approaches the state this weekend. Moisture returns so lower high temperatures will result. We'll see, but the next heat wave may not occur until early August, and as the normal high temperatures drop - this might be the hottest period of time this summer.

I'm on a business trip during a camping vacation (how crazy is that) - so I'll make this post cover the next three days. Not much will change except how much everyone sweats. (yuck) Drink lots of water!

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image (browns/reds are dry air, whites and light grey is moist air, purple/blue is ice and high cloud tops). From the the Weather Channel.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

48°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.78 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
35 °F
Humidity
59%
Wind
SSW 2.2 mph
Gust
4.6 mph
Wind Chill
48 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
48°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Today
2 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 AM
51°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
55°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
60°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
64°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
66°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Monday

67 °F

Turning cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

44 °F

An evening shower in spots; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Windy in the morning; mostly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Clearing


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

65 °F

Periods of clouds and sun, becoming breezy with a thunderstorm in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Wednesday Night

39 °F

A thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

59 °F

Windy in the morning; intervals of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

32 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Friday

65 °F

Some sun


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:02 AM
Sunset
7:54 PM

Based on AccuWeather data