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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 13, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

With a ridge overhead, we soar to the 80's F for a couple of days. Moisture returns with the heat - so afternoon thunderstorms (we'll have to watch the severe chances) return today (Thursday) as well. A cool front comes in for the the weekend. We cool to the 70's F and have pretty good daily chances of rain and thundershowers.

Forecast Discussion:

Widely scattered storms will form in the mountains and move eastward this afternoon (Thursday- Figure 1). High pressure at the surface and aloft mean heat - temperatures in the mid to upper 80's F.

Meteorologist Matt Makins (via Twitter @MattMakens) posted some interesting statistics. "Interesting Denver weather tidbits: In 2018 through June 10th, we had 12 days in the 90s. Yet in 2019 through June 10th, we have yet to hit the 90s and have only been 80°+ 8 times."

There are no 90's+ F in the forecast and longer range models show the cool (and moist) conditions will continue for a number of weeks to come, overall (Figure 2).

The heat Thursday will be about 7 to 9 degrees F above normal (Figure 3). Thursday and Friday are the warmest days.

With heat and moisture - will we see severe weather return? Figure 5 shows a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) out on the Eastern Plains. We HAVE seen this get expanded westward on the day of the event a number of times. I'll update this post if the SPC changes the western boundary.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Similar to Thursday, there is a chance of severe weather out on the Plains on Friday as well (Figure 6). It doesn't extend back to the I-25 folks, but that might change.

The cool down on Saturday (Figure 4) knocks the temperatures to some 6-8 degrees F below average.

Figure 2 shows that there are elevated chances of rain beginning Friday and continuing to Monday (green box). The coolest period spans Saturday to Monday (black box). Over the next 5 days, the GFS gives about a quarter of the state up to 1 inch or more of rain and a lot of folks 1/2 inch or more rainfall. Don't trust any one spot (like the pink dot for Longmont where there is exactly 1/2 inch of water) but this pattern and overall rainfall highlights are probably reliable.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday night from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Thursday PM.
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Saturday PM.
Figure 5: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Wednesday for Thursday.
Figure 6: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Wednesday for Friday.
Figure 7: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.



Comments

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

70°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.1 Steady
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
56 °F
Humidity
61%
Wind
WSW 3.5 mph
Gust
3.5 mph
Wind Chill
70 °F

Forecast


Partly sunny w/ showers

Monday

87 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and not as hot; a shower in spots late this afternoon


Mostly clear

Monday Night

57 °F

An evening shower in spots; otherwise, mainly clear


Partly sunny

Tuesday

95 °F

Very warm with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Wednesday

95 °F

Partial sunshine


Clear

Wednesday Night

60 °F

Clear


Partly sunny

Thursday

96 °F

Partly sunny and very warm


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

65 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly cloudy

Friday

97 °F

Very warm with sun followed by clouds


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:08 AM
Sunset
8:03 PM

Based on AccuWeather data