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In Brief:
We have daily afternoon chances of rain and thunderstorms Saturday through Wednesday with below normal temperatures. Heaver rain amounts are expected Monday and Tuesday. Some severe weather (hail and high winds are the primary risk) is possible Sunday afternoon.
Forecast Discussion:
The front is in place down the Plains and up into the Foothills (Figure 1). This has stabilized the atmosphere significantly (Saturday afternoon). Moisture is more limited (especially north of I70) with precipitable amounts only around 0.63 inches this morning at DIA. Except where the lucky thundershower travels, most locations will see less than a 1/10th of an inch of water today (Saturday afternoon) and severe weather is not expected (Figure 3).
The Longer Range Forecast:
Tomorrow (Sunday) we have a couple of periods of rainfall - around noon and around sunset - possible (Figure 2). There is a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) for thunderstorms to create damaging hail and high winds over NE Colorado.
The GFS gives most locations under 1/2 inch of water over the next 5 days with lucky locations getting 1-2 inches (Figure 5). The NAM, over the next 2.5 days, shows how very spotty this convective precipitation will be (Figure 6).
