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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 18, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Weather remains cool and stormy (afternoons) for two more days (the rest of Monday and Tuesday). We get hot and dry for Wednesday and Thursday (90F more more Thursday???). Cooler 70'sF and showers return Friday through Sunday. Severe weather is not expected around Longmont through Thursday (but updates will show up here).

Forecast Discussion:

The cool front is still here (stationary) and the trough is still overhead. Afternoon showers are drifting around Monday (severe to our east) and will return (non-severe) Tuesday (Figure 1).

We might pick up 1/3rd of an inch of rain depending on where storms wander Tuesday (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

After this, we get a very short, 2 day visit from summer (Figure 2). That is due to a ridge that will move rapidly by Wednesday and Thursday (Figure 3 - blue line to our east).

The trough to our west moves in for the weekend and we go back to the current pattern (Figure 2). The GFS gives us about 1/2 inch of water over the next 5 days (Figure 4). The NAM seems to be about 0.3-0.4 inch over the same time period (Figure 5).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Tudsday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Thursday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.

Current Weather

Partly sunny

Partly sunny

64°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
29.88 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
22%
Wind
SE 4.6 mph
Gust
11.4 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
64°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
59°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 PM
57°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
42°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
40°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

65 °F

Becoming cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

35 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

71 °F

Pleasant with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

46 °F

Partly cloudy


Cloudy

Monday

60 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a shower in spots; windy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Monday Night

41 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:58 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM

Based on AccuWeather data