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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – March 20, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Happy Spring! Spring begins today at 3:58 PM MDT

The cool air that pushed trough yesterday, dropping showers that evaporated before reaching the ground, is entering Texas and Oklahoma (clearly visible in Figure 1). A ridge overhead gives us beautiful (almost spring-like) weather today. Enjoy.

The longer range forecast. 

The weather changes as troughs begin to crash into our state by the end of the week - lead by the cut off low that will put more rain down in the desert (it is REALLY green in the deserts of AZ right now - with wildflower blooms going on) and snow in the mountains. By Saturday, a number of short waves will pass over the state creating, first, mountain snows, low land rains, then some snow chances as each trough drags a bit of cool air in (Figure 2 and Figure 3).

From Figure 3, we have rain showers beginning Sunday and continuing to Tuesday AM. By Monday PM, Longmont might see a coating to a 1/2 inch of snow (Figure 4) and 1/10th to 1/4th inch of water (Figure 5). We'll keep an eye on it as the week progresses.

Since I'll be traveling back Thursday and Friday - I might have to post another double day post then to insure against a no-internet day. It is just not ubiquitous yet!

Figure 1: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Tuesday PM.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Saturday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4 : the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Monday PM.
Figure 5 : the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Monday PM.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

49°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.67 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
47%
Wind
W 10.2 mph
Gust
20.3 mph
Wind Chill
45 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 PM
49°F
Showers
Today
8 PM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
47°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
45°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
43°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
41°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
40°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
39°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
38°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
37°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
36°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
35°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Tuesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of brief showers beginning at midday; windy


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy and colder; there can be frost in the normally colder spots


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

58 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Wednesday Night

39 °F

Increasing clouds with a shower in spots late


Partly sunny w/ showers

Thursday

56 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; cool


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

63 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Clear

Friday Night

42 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Saturday

68 °F

Mostly sunny


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

43 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:52 AM
Sunset
8:02 PM

Based on AccuWeather data