This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.
Forecast Discussion:
I begin my trek back across the cactus dotted lands of Arizona and New Mexico where tall stick-like things are saguaro instead of cell towers. In other words, I'm posting 2 days at once since I won't have internet for a day.
The upper level ridge (= nice, warm, dry weather) is to be replaced by a series of short waves rippling across the state. The first is now looking juicer than it did yesterday (more moisture). This front isn't very cold so it is bringing a lot of rain showers to the desert southwest (Figure 1). For Thursday, a cutoff low rolls into Nevada/Arizona/Utah. That will pump some moisture our way and kick a short wave our way as well (Figure 2). Figure 4 shows this ripple giving us a better chance of low-land rain showers (and more mountain snows) in Colorado Friday and Friday night. This model gives us about 1/10th an inch.
The longer range forecast:
The next system (again, mostly rain with the warmer temperatures) arrives Sunday into Monday (Figure 4). The complex (read: messy) upper-air pattern for Sunday PM (Figure 3) has plenty of not-so-strong ripples of moisture.
Through the next 6 days, the mountains get 4-10 inches in places. Boulder may get a coating of snow Sunday PM, but we miss on the any significant snow accumulation (Figure 5). For rainfall, there is another down-slope hole around Denver to Boulder but we might see .05 to .25 inch of rain. (note that the weatherunderground model in Figure 4 gives us about 4/10th's an inch of rain over this time.)
