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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – May 1, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The storm system is slow to pull out. Rain showers (and snow showers) are possible through Thursday evening, but chances diminish each day as temperatures rise. We have a warm dry weekend ahead followed by a return of rain and thunderstorms next week.

Snow Reports:

Before we get to the discussion, let's look at what happened with the snow across the region. I called for 2-5 inches of snow. Longmont received about 3-4 inches (Figure A). Boulder saw 3-5 inches. Ft. Collins saw 3-7 inches (east to west across town). Estes park picked up 6-13 inches. Wow (Figure B). Denver saw just a trace in the east to 5 inches in the foothills (Figure C).

Forecast Discussion:

Our next wave came through Tuesday afternoon, but it did start as snow rather than rain (temperatures were at 41° F - it just want's to make me look bad!). There is a wide trough across the west with ripples traveling over the state on northwest flow for another couple of days (Figure 1). For Wednesday, the front is draped south of the state with more mountain showers and a few showers out on the Plains (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

The longer range forecast has the trough replaced by a ridge for the weekend (not shown) that is, in turn, replaced by another big trough next week (not shown). Enjoy this weekend and have your umbrella ready for thunderstorms on Tuesday with rain in the days beyond that (Figure 3). Might we get our first severe weather of the year along I-25 next week?!?!

Figure A: total new precipitation totals for Monday/Tuesday up to 7am for Boulder county from CoCoRaHS.
Figure B: total new precipitation totals for Monday/Tuesday up to 7am for Larimer county from CoCoRaHS.
Figure C: total new precipitation totals for Monday/Tuesday up to 7am for the Denver metro from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 1: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday morning. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM from NCEP.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com


Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

53°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.93 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
39 °F
Humidity
58%
Wind
NNE 2.2 mph
Gust
4.2 mph
Wind Chill
53 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
54°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
51°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
49°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
48°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
46°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
45°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
43°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
42°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
39°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
41°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
9 AM
53°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Saturday

64 °F

Cooler with clouds giving way to some sun


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

39 °F

A shower in spots this evening; otherwise, turning out clear


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Cloudy most of the time, breezy and warmer


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Rather cloudy and windy


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Very windy; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

41 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

59 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun; windy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:55 AM
Sunset
7:59 PM

Based on AccuWeather data