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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – May 14, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

We reach the 80'sF for highs over the next 3 days. There is a small chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms rolling off the mountains in the afternoon (as we have seen for a few days already).

A big trough moves in again for Friday - kicking off thunderstorms and cooling us to the 60'sF into next week.

Forecast Discussion:

High pressure at the surface (Figure 1) and overhead in the jet stream level (Figure 2) means we warm up. With daytime heating, moisture, and ripples in that upper level flow - we may see afternoon thundershowers the next couple of days. Each day hits the 80'sF (Figure 3). This will feel warm.

The Longer Range Forecast:

The next big trough (not shown) moves in on Friday. We might see severe storms nearby (we won't know more until closer to the week end -blue line -Figure 3). We cool about 15-20F starting Saturday and continuing on to mid-week next week.

Not a lot of water seems in the offing though. The GFS gives us under 1/4th inch over the next 5 days (Figure 4). Over the next 10 days, snow remains in the mountain and may dust Boulder - but not Longmont (Figure 5). More later!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Tuesday early AM from NCEP.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday morning. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 10 days.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

56°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.79 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
36 °F
Humidity
47%
Wind
SSW 3.2 mph
Gust
7.3 mph
Wind Chill
56 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 PM
56°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
50°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
42°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
40°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
38°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
37°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
35°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
7 AM
37°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

68 °F

A morning shower in spots; otherwise, clouds and breaks of sun


Thunderstorms

Wednesday Night

35 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

63 °F

A blend of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

39 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

64 °F

Some sun; breezy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Rather cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

43 °F

Rather cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:59 AM
Sunset
7:56 PM

Based on AccuWeather data