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In Brief:
The moisture is arriving, the cool fronts are arriving - it will rain a good amount over the next four days with temperatures dropping each day. We have a chance of morning snow Thursday and Friday. After that we dry out some and warm up a bit for the weekend.
Forecast Discussion:
The water vapor satellite image (moist air is white/pink/teal, dry air is red/orange/black) shows that the center of the upper level low is coming on shore Monday PM. The river of tropical moisture (green arrow - Figure 1) is flowing northward ahead of the system. The air feels really moist outside and big storms formed east of I-25 to kick off this blustery wet week.
The graphical forecast in Figure 2 shows very little break in the high rain chances through Friday morning. Today (Tuesday) we should pick up our first 3/4ths of an inch of water. The GFS based output in Figure 3 shows storm chances Monday PM then storms returning by dawn.
The Longer Range Forecast:
The highs drop to the lower 40'sF Wed/Thur and we have a chance of early morning snow Thursday and Friday. According to the latest weatherundeground.com model output - we get an inch of snow Thursday AM.
The GFS snowfall map - Figure 4 - gives us a coating to 1 inch over the course of this storm. The mountains pick up 1 to 1.5 feet. Wow.
Rainfall Roundup:
Figure 5 - the GFS gives us 1.25-1.5 inches of water over the next 5 days.
Figure 6 - the GEM gives us 1.75 to 2 inches of water over this time.
Figure 7 - the JMA (Japanese model) gives us 1.25-1.5 inches of water (a new model for this column).
Remember that the models went precipitation crazy before the last storm, and we only got about a third of that amount. Still, this will be a wet and chilly week. Keep warm and dry!
