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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – Nov 6-7, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Cool but dry weather is the story for Tuesday night and Wednesday day. A front comes through (dry) in the afternoon with wind and cooling temperatures. Clouds move in later in the afternoon followed by drizzle and then freezing drizzle overnight. Precipitation (with maybe a few flurries later in the night) comes to an end before dawn. Bridges and driveways and shaded spots might get pretty slick by morning Thursday. Drive safely before the sun warms things enough to melt that glaze. We stay cool and dry until another front might do this again Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Forecast Discussion:

A dry and not too cold cool front will blow things around Wednesday afternoon (Figure 1). Clouds will begin to increase a few hours later with light drizzle beginning in the evening. As temperatures drop below freezing, it will change to freezing drizzle (Figure 2 and 3). We only drop to the mid 20'sF Thursday morning. This isn't super cold. Bridges and cool roadway surfaces might be very slick for the Thursday morning commute. The sun will be out again by late morning Thursday and melt most of those spots. The total snowfall and rainfall over the next five days is below the minimal shaded threshold (Figure 4 and 5). This won't make much of a water impact.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We slowly warm until another front slides over Sunday afternoon. Will we get snow, or freezing drizzle Monday morning? We'll watch it all week.

I'm in Leesburg, VA for my annual work meeting - but I am watching Colorado from here!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Thursday AM from NCEP.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4 : The forecast snowfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.
Figure 5 : The forecast rainfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.

Current Weather

Light rain

Light rain

67°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
30.22 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
48 °F
Humidity
50%
Wind
ENE 2.9 mph
Gust
6.2 mph
Wind Chill
67 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 PM
71°F
Thunderstorms
Today
5 PM
68°F
Thunderstorms
Today
6 PM
65°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
64°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
61°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
58°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
55°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
53°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
53°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
52°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
52°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
51°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

72 °F

Turning cloudy with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

48 °F

Clearing


Mostly sunny

Thursday

77 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Thursday Night

45 °F

Clear


Sunny

Friday

84 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Mostly cloudy

Friday Night

50 °F

Increasing clouds


Partly sunny

Saturday

83 °F

Partly sunny


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

53 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

86 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

50 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:43 AM
Sunset
7:06 PM

Based on AccuWeather data