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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – Nov 6-7, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Cool but dry weather is the story for Tuesday night and Wednesday day. A front comes through (dry) in the afternoon with wind and cooling temperatures. Clouds move in later in the afternoon followed by drizzle and then freezing drizzle overnight. Precipitation (with maybe a few flurries later in the night) comes to an end before dawn. Bridges and driveways and shaded spots might get pretty slick by morning Thursday. Drive safely before the sun warms things enough to melt that glaze. We stay cool and dry until another front might do this again Sunday afternoon into Monday.

Forecast Discussion:

A dry and not too cold cool front will blow things around Wednesday afternoon (Figure 1). Clouds will begin to increase a few hours later with light drizzle beginning in the evening. As temperatures drop below freezing, it will change to freezing drizzle (Figure 2 and 3). We only drop to the mid 20'sF Thursday morning. This isn't super cold. Bridges and cool roadway surfaces might be very slick for the Thursday morning commute. The sun will be out again by late morning Thursday and melt most of those spots. The total snowfall and rainfall over the next five days is below the minimal shaded threshold (Figure 4 and 5). This won't make much of a water impact.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We slowly warm until another front slides over Sunday afternoon. Will we get snow, or freezing drizzle Monday morning? We'll watch it all week.

I'm in Leesburg, VA for my annual work meeting - but I am watching Colorado from here!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Thursday AM from NCEP.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4 : The forecast snowfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.
Figure 5 : The forecast rainfall totals for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Tuesday noon.



Comments

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

90°F

UV Index
11 Extreme
Pressure
30.09 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
47 °F
Humidity
22%
Wind
ESE 2.7 mph
Gust
5.4 mph
Wind Chill
91 °F

Forecast


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

92 °F

Partly sunny with the temperature near the record of 95; a thunderstorm late this afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

61 °F

Mild with increasing clouds


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

88 °F

Very warm with intervals of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy and mild


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

88 °F

Periods of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

55 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Thursday

87 °F

Very warm with sun and some clouds


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

54 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

91 °F

Rather cloudy and very warm


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

62 °F

Partly to mostly cloudy and mild


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
11:33 AM
Sunset
2:24 AM

Based on AccuWeather data