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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 12-14, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

We spend the next (almost) 5 days a bit warmer than normal and mostly dry (with a few cloudy days). A front arrives Saturday for a chance of rain (snow?) and another front does the same next Tuesday. We'll watch those for signs of further development this week.

Forecast Discussion:

The forecast for last nights storm came out well. A pretty notable layer of ice got laid down before 1-3 inches of snow fell across Longmont (Figure 1). Boulder did better (like normal) with 2-4 inches. Our storm has blasted all the way down to Texas giving us clear skies and warming temperatures as the western ridge returns Tuesday (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

That's the story through Saturday - a bit warmer than normal and dry. There is a hint of a Saturday cold front with rain/snow and another front on Tuesday for more rain/snow (Figure 3). It's sort of boring again, so let's look at the last long range forecast (as promised) and the next even longer range forecast...

The Ultra Long Range Forecast:

At the start of October, the NOAA outlook was for above normal temperatures here (Figure 4). What happened was nearly the opposite (Figure 5). The NOAA precipitation forecast was somewhat spotty and was for normal amounts around Colorado (Figure 6). What occurred was near normal precipitation around here (but most of it came as snow, which was above normal) (Figure 7). The NOAA forecast busted as far as temperature trends went.

The NOAA forecast for November-January is for above normal temperatures (Figure 8). Weatherbell has an outlook that gives us near normal temperatures and massive cold in the upper Midwest (Figure 9). Weatherbell did much better for October (not shown).

As precipitation goes, NOAA has us wetter than normal (Figure 10) while Weatherbell paints us as near normal (snowfall-wise Figure 11). I might lean towards Weatherbell personally with the record of October to look back on - very close to normal snowfall and temperatures for the rest of the winter.

Figure 1: 24 hour snowfall reports through 7am Monday in Boulder Co. from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 2: The current surface analysis map from the Weather Channel Monday night.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: The temperature outlook for October 2019 made in the end of September and posted in this column from NOAA.
Figure 5: The actual temperature anomaly that occurred October 2019 from NOAA/NCEI Climate Division.
Figure 6: The precipitation outlook for October 2019 made in the end of September and posted in this column from NOAA.
Figure 7: The actual precipitation anomaly that occurred October 2019 from NOAA/NCEI Climate Division.
Figure 8: The temperature outlook for Nov 2019 to Jan 2020 made in the end of October from NOAA.
Figure 9: The Nov 2019-March 2020 temperature forecast from WeatherBell screen capture from their free online video.
Figure 10: The temperature outlook for Nov 2019 to Jan 2020 made in the end of October from NOAA.
Figure 11: The Nov 2019-March 2020 snowfall forecast from WeatherBell screen capture from their free online video.



Comments

Cloudy

Cloudy

68°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.98 Steady
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
53 °F
Humidity
58%
Wind
E 5.8 mph
Gust
5.8 mph
Wind Chill
68 °F

Forecast


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

81 °F

Cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

56 °F

Patchy clouds


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

85 °F

Sunshine and some clouds with a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

57 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Thursday

93 °F

Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Friday

97 °F

Very warm with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

63 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday

99 °F

Very warm with times of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

65 °F

Mainly clear and mild


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
11:44 AM
Sunset
2:29 AM

Based on AccuWeather data