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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 16, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

The longer range forecast:

As a giant nor'easter gathers itself on the East Coast, we are high and dry out west (Figure 1). I did want to check on smoke levels and some smoke has leaked across Colorado and into the Midwestern states (Figure 2). There is not 'too' much smoke in the air currently, though. Winds in California have relaxed with high pressure building in from the northwest.

Figure 1: The current surface map from Thursday p.m. and the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The 24 hour forecast for smoke at all levels from the HRRR model valid Friday midday.

The longer range forecast:

As of Saturday a.m., a low is deepening over northern Colorado and snow is picking up in Wyoming and starting to slip down into our state. The snowfall should fall mainly 4 a.m. to 11 p.m. on Saturday (Figure 3).

Weather underground is still at 1-3" of snow.

Figure 4- the GFS -has us in the 1-2" of snow.

The NAM, Figure 5, has us around 2-3" of snow (but lower just east of downtown Longmont).

No matter what, it will be cold - below freezing for a day, again.

We'll see!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Saturday a.m. From NCEP.

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado for the next 3 days, through Sunday p.m. Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Figure 5: The forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and weather5280.com for Colorado for the next 3 days, through Sunday p.m. Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Current Weather

Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

64°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.5 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
32 °F
Humidity
30%
Wind
S 4.9 mph
Gust
9.8 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
62°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
54°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
52°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
51°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
50°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
49°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
7 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
8 AM
49°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
9 AM
50°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Sunday

76 °F

Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Windy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Winds becoming strong; thickening clouds


Windy

Monday

56 °F

Winds gusting past 40 mph; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

42 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Tuesday

59 °F

A couple of showers in the morning; otherwise, windy and cool with times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

58 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

56 °F

Breezy and cool with sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:54 AM
Sunset
8:00 PM

Based on AccuWeather data