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Update 10/13 3pm: Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 13-15, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Very nice mild weather weather is the story for this upcoming week. A trough will pass Tuesday and kick up some winds and cool us down, but we recover to the 70'sF until the weekend. A chance of rain (and snow?) return at the start of next week.

Update 10/13 3pm:

It is too beautiful out there to stay inside at the computer long, but the snow for Sunday/Monday 10/20-21 is looking like it might be a bigger deal. This is your heads up for next weekend.

Figure 1 update: The forecast snowfall totals for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Saturday morning.

End update 10/13 3pm.

Forecast Discussion:

The cold front continues plow across the nation this weekend as we begin our warm-up. Dry and warmer conditions is the simple story for this long weekend (Figure 1). We'll even see 70'sF Monday (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

A passing upper level trough cools us about 10 degrees Tuesday with a windy morning (not shown). Little precipitation is expected. We bounce back to the 70'sF for the rest of the week (Figure 2). This warmth is created by a ridge as it drifts over the state (Figure 3). There is indication of a return of cool wet weather next Sunday (Figure 2) with snow up in the mountains (some runs give us a bit of snow as well - Figure 4).

Figure 1: the surface temperature anomaly (departure from normal) from the GFS for Saturdamorning from weather5280.com.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: The forecast snowfall totals for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280com for Colorado made Saturday morning.

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

74°F

UV Index
5 Moderate
Pressure
30.23 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
42 °F
Humidity
31%
Wind
NNE 3.5 mph
Gust
7.8 mph
Wind Chill
74 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
75°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
76°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
76°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
75°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
73°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
71°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
68°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
7 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
63°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
56°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

76 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in the area this afternoon; thunderstorms can bring gusty winds, hail and localized flooding


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

51 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, increasing clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

72 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of thundershowers in the afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday Night

50 °F

A couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, clearing


Mostly sunny

Thursday

72 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Thursday Night

45 °F

Clear


Sunny

Friday

81 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

47 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

85 °F

Mostly sunny


Clear

Saturday Night

53 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
7:08 PM

Based on AccuWeather data