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The Next Storm/Next Snow and Lunar Eclipse Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 29, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Nothing is constant in the universe except for change... and decreased snowfall potential as we approach possible snow days.  But first, our warm and windy conditions today and tomorrow come from down slope flow and the big ridge overhead (Figure 1). The 10 day graphical glance (Figure 2) has us getting up to the lower 60's on Tuesday (with a fair amount of cloudiness).

The big news is the 'blue blood super moon eclipse' Wednesday morning before sunrise (you are invited to the Cherrywood Observatory - see the post last Wednesday). The orange line is during the onset of the eclipse at 5am. We are 50/50 with clouds with a low, but soon to increase, chance of precipitation.  Things are trending upwards as clouds go during this time as well. Temperatures are right at freezing.

Figure 3 sees the return of our ensemble cycle location map.  There is a front, at least, pushing down and draping up the Front Range.  The main storm is up in Canada though. That means that snowfall is now down to a coating to an inch possible Wednesday later in the day into Thursday morning (Figure 4). Yep, it's happening again.

Figure 1: The forecast 500mb upper air map for this evening from the GFS.

Figure 2: The 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

Figure 3: The ensemble map forecasting cyclone locations for Wednesday morning (eclipse time) (low pressure centers - yellows and greens/blues = more confident) from weathermodels.com and wx.graphics

Figure 4: The total snowfall forecast from the GFS between Sunday PM and Thursday AM.

The longer range forecast:

In Figure 1, temperatures stay cooler into the weekend and there is another small chance of precipitation next weekend. Figure 5 suggests 1/10th of an inch to 1 inch may come out of that by next Sunday.  Who do we need to write to get a big snow storm?

Figure 5: The total snowfall forecast from the GFS between Sunday PM and next Sunday.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

60°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.84 Falling
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
34 °F
Humidity
36%
Wind
WSW 3.3 mph
Gust
7.5 mph
Wind Chill
60 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 PM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
52°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
7 AM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
8 AM
50°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Monday

67 °F

Turning cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Windy in the morning; mostly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Clearing


Partly sunny w/ showers

Wednesday

65 °F

Periods of clouds and sun, becoming breezy with a passing shower in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

39 °F

A thundershower in parts of the area in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

59 °F

Windy in the morning; intervals of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Thursday Night

32 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Friday

65 °F

Some sun


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:02 AM
Sunset
7:54 PM

Based on AccuWeather data