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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – October 27, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'm traveling again (I know!) so a brief update today... Some snow swept down the Front Range foothills and I-25 corridor. The CoCoRaHS reports come in at 7am local time, so I'll hop in and update this post to include notable (or not so notable) snowfall amounts in the morning.

** Longmont received a coating of snow at 0.1" - total water content w/rain was about 0.05" across the town.

Boulder received about 1-1.5", Estes Park about 1.5-2", Berthoud received a Trace, Fort Collins received a Trace, Denver received a Trace to an inch on the west side, The Palmer Divide picked up a Trace to an inch in places. **

At 10pm Thursday evening (Figure 1) the front was clear of the state in the south and the small batch of falling snow was down in the SE corner. Temperatures were getting very chilly at that time as well (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Surface analysis from Thursday PM.

Figure 2: Surface temperatures from Thursday PM.

In the longer range:

A pair of troughs in the upper air pattern will sweep over us (as northwest flow aloft continues, little fronts can hit at any time). The NWS and weatherunderground models show the Monday morning trough to be the more significant snow maker.  Figure 3 is the total GFS snowfall total after the Thursday storm through Monday night.  It looks more impressive than what we just experienced, still not a lot of snow.  One other model (not shown since it is an outlier) has the Tuesday storm being a big snow maker... we'll see!

Halloween Forecast: Our old forecast had it warm and clear on Halloween.  The models thought the jet stream would be a few hundred miles further north... now not so much.

With some clouds and a chance (15%) of rain/snow, Halloween may have a high of only 41F and a Low of 31F. At 7pm it should be about 34F with west breezes of about 3-6mph.

Figure 3: Total snowfall AFTER the snow finished Thursday PM to Tuesday AM.

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

48°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.62 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
19 °F
Humidity
32%
Wind
W 5.2 mph
Gust
12.8 mph
Wind Chill
46 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 AM
43°F
Showers
Today
8 AM
47°F
Partly sunny w/ showers
Today
9 AM
50°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
54°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
56°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
58°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
1 PM
59°F
Showers
Today
2 PM
61°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Tuesday

61 °F

Very windy; a couple of showers this morning; otherwise, times of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy; there can be frost in the normally colder spots


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

57 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

39 °F

Increasing clouds


Partly sunny w/ showers

Thursday

56 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; cool


Cloudy

Thursday Night

40 °F

Cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

66 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Mostly clear

Friday Night

40 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Saturday

74 °F

Pleasant and warmer with periods of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

43 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:52 AM
Sunset
8:02 PM

Based on AccuWeather data