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The Front Range Forecast: A mid-week storm

In Brief:

It will be a mild dry week broken up by a rather good looking mid-week snow storm.

Forecast Discussion:

My previous forecast wasn't great around Loveland to Fort Collins (most places got less than an inch).  I did well around Longmont and Broomfield (Figure 1). But I gave Boulder only a max of 6 inches and there were up to 10 inches in that town.

Temperatures rocket to the 50s and almost 60s early in the week (a hint of the ridge-created heat that will be a story in LA for the Superbowl) Figure 2.

Figure1_02122022
Figure 1: the CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of Saturday AM.
Figure202122022
Figure 2: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Denver, CO.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Our next big system starts to affect the area Tuesday evening with a stout afternoon cold front passage (Figure 2 dotted line). A deep trough and upper level low slides over the state Tuesday through Thursday morning (Figure 3). It is snowing most of the day Wednesday (Figure 4) across the state. Even though I think this will be a fairly significant storm, the GFS is pretty modest with only 1-4 inches across the Front Range.  I'll post updates here!

 

Figure302122022
Figure 3: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure402122022
Figure 4: the 6 hour averaged precipitation around Wednesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure5_02122022
Figure 5: the 6 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

54°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.03 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
52 °F
Humidity
93%
Wind
NW 1.6 mph
Gust
3.1 mph
Wind Chill
54 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 AM
55°F
Showers
Today
5 AM
55°F
Rain
Today
6 AM
55°F
Rain
Today
7 AM
55°F
Rain
Today
8 AM
56°F
Partly sunny w/ showers
Today
9 AM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
66°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
69°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
72°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
73°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Thunderstorms

Saturday

75 °F

Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Rain

Saturday Night

53 °F

Mostly cloudy; a shower in spots late in the evening followed by rain and drizzle late


Partly sunny

Sunday

75 °F

A morning shower in spots; otherwise, sun and some clouds


Clear

Sunday Night

50 °F

Clear


Partly sunny

Monday

86 °F

Partly sunny and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

52 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

72 °F

Pleasant with times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

50 °F

Cloudy in the evening with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, then partly cloudy late


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

71 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm


Clear

Wednesday Night

47 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:39 AM
Sunset
7:13 PM

Based on AccuWeather data