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The Front Range Forecast: A mid-week storm

In Brief:

It will be a mild dry week broken up by a rather good looking mid-week snow storm.

Forecast Discussion:

My previous forecast wasn't great around Loveland to Fort Collins (most places got less than an inch).  I did well around Longmont and Broomfield (Figure 1). But I gave Boulder only a max of 6 inches and there were up to 10 inches in that town.

Temperatures rocket to the 50s and almost 60s early in the week (a hint of the ridge-created heat that will be a story in LA for the Superbowl) Figure 2.

Figure1_02122022
Figure 1: the CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of Saturday AM.
Figure202122022
Figure 2: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Denver, CO.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Our next big system starts to affect the area Tuesday evening with a stout afternoon cold front passage (Figure 2 dotted line). A deep trough and upper level low slides over the state Tuesday through Thursday morning (Figure 3). It is snowing most of the day Wednesday (Figure 4) across the state. Even though I think this will be a fairly significant storm, the GFS is pretty modest with only 1-4 inches across the Front Range.  I'll post updates here!

 

Figure302122022
Figure 3: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure402122022
Figure 4: the 6 hour averaged precipitation around Wednesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure5_02122022
Figure 5: the 6 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

70°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
30.21 Falling
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
60 °F
Humidity
69%
Wind
NE 1.7 mph
Gust
3.7 mph
Wind Chill
70 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
73°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
1 PM
76°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
2 PM
78°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
3 PM
80°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 PM
82°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
84°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
82°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
79°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
73°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
69°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Saturday

84 °F

Clouds and breaks of sun; smoke from area fires will lead to poor air quality


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

94 °F

Partly sunny with a passing shower in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

61 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Monday

91 °F

Considerable cloudiness


Mostly clear

Monday Night

60 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

84 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data