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The Front Range Forecast: A mid-week storm

In Brief:

It will be a mild dry week broken up by a rather good looking mid-week snow storm.

Forecast Discussion:

My previous forecast wasn't great around Loveland to Fort Collins (most places got less than an inch).  I did well around Longmont and Broomfield (Figure 1). But I gave Boulder only a max of 6 inches and there were up to 10 inches in that town.

Temperatures rocket to the 50s and almost 60s early in the week (a hint of the ridge-created heat that will be a story in LA for the Superbowl) Figure 2.

Figure1_02122022
Figure 1: the CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of Saturday AM.
Figure202122022
Figure 2: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Denver, CO.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Our next big system starts to affect the area Tuesday evening with a stout afternoon cold front passage (Figure 2 dotted line). A deep trough and upper level low slides over the state Tuesday through Thursday morning (Figure 3). It is snowing most of the day Wednesday (Figure 4) across the state. Even though I think this will be a fairly significant storm, the GFS is pretty modest with only 1-4 inches across the Front Range.  I'll post updates here!

 

Figure302122022
Figure 3: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Wednesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure402122022
Figure 4: the 6 hour averaged precipitation around Wednesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure5_02122022
Figure 5: the 6 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

49°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.68 Rising
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
39 °F
Humidity
67%
Wind
E 2.2 mph
Gust
5.4 mph
Wind Chill
49 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 AM
48°F
Sunny
Today
8 AM
53°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
58°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
64°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
69°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
72°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
73°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
72°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
70°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
66°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
62°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
59°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Wednesday

73 °F

Cooler with sunshine giving way to clouds; windy this afternoon; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity


Cloudy

Wednesday Night

45 °F

Overcast


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

70 °F

Breezy and pleasant with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

45 °F

Overcast in the evening, then partly cloudy late


Intermittent clouds

Friday

73 °F

Beautiful with times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

47 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

71 °F

Turning cloudy with a passing shower in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Saturday Night

45 °F

Mostly cloudy


Thunderstorms

Sunday

66 °F

Cloudy; morning thundershowers, becoming windy in the afternoon with a couple of showers


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Sunday Night

40 °F

Showers and thunderstorms in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:46 AM
Sunset
8:08 PM

Based on AccuWeather data