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The Front Range Forecast: A more normal summer

In Brief:

Severe weather on the plains east of I-25, typical summer weather for everyone else.

The Forecast Discussion:

The normal high temperature for I-25 folks is 90F this week (the highest normal high temperature we see in the year). For most of the next 10 days we are close to or a bit below that except for the start of next week (Figure 1). There are low chances of an afternoon storm through Saturday with severe weather just east of I-25 Thursday (Figure 3). That is being kicked off by a ripple traveling through the upper-level flow (Figure 2 - red line over Colorado) and persistent good low-level moisture levels (high dew points).

 

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Thursday evening from tropicaltidbits and the GFS.
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Figure 3: the severe weather outlook for Thursday from the SPC and NOAA.

The Longer Range Forecast:

The upper air pattern evolves into a 'northwest flow' setup over Colorado after that as a ridge forms over the West (Figure 4). We can get surprise afternoon and evening storms with this pattern. The forecast may be tricky this next week. Keep an eye on the skies for storms that may 'come out of nowhere.'

The expected rainfall over the next 5 days is light and confined to the eastern side of the Rockies (Figure 5).  I'm getting concerned about how long we have not had rain in western Colorado.  Hopefully the U.S. monsoon starts up soon and brings rain/storms back to that side of the state.

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Figure 4: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Sunday noon from tropicaltidbits and the GFS.
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Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

35°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.3 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
29 °F
Humidity
79%
Wind
WNW 1.1 mph
Gust
2.2 mph
Wind Chill
35 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
34°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
34°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
33°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
32°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
32°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
31°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
31°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
30°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
30°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
7 AM
31°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
8 AM
33°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
36°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Tuesday

56 °F

Mostly sunny and mild


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

30 °F

Patchy clouds


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Mild with times of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

32 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Thursday

61 °F

Mostly sunny and mild


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

30 °F

Partly cloudy


Snow

Friday

36 °F

Much colder with periods of snow, accumulating an inch or two


Snow

Friday Night

17 °F

Colder with periods of snow, accumulating an inch or two; storm total snowfall 1-3 inches


Partly sunny w/ flurries

Saturday

37 °F

A couple of morning flurries; otherwise, clouds yielding to sun


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

17 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
4:35 PM

Based on AccuWeather data