In Brief:
Severe weather on the plains east of I-25, typical summer weather for everyone else.
The Forecast Discussion:
The normal high temperature for I-25 folks is 90F this week (the highest normal high temperature we see in the year). For most of the next 10 days we are close to or a bit below that except for the start of next week (Figure 1). There are low chances of an afternoon storm through Saturday with severe weather just east of I-25 Thursday (Figure 3). That is being kicked off by a ripple traveling through the upper-level flow (Figure 2 - red line over Colorado) and persistent good low-level moisture levels (high dew points).
The Longer Range Forecast:
The upper air pattern evolves into a 'northwest flow' setup over Colorado after that as a ridge forms over the West (Figure 4). We can get surprise afternoon and evening storms with this pattern. The forecast may be tricky this next week. Keep an eye on the skies for storms that may 'come out of nowhere.'
The expected rainfall over the next 5 days is light and confined to the eastern side of the Rockies (Figure 5). I'm getting concerned about how long we have not had rain in western Colorado. Hopefully the U.S. monsoon starts up soon and brings rain/storms back to that side of the state.
