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Fri Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snow/sleet, maybe rain

In Brief:

Cool with snow/sleet and maybe rain.

Friday update:

Light snow/sleet 'might' switch over to rain in the afternoon before turning back to snow overnight. We return to a warm up beyond. A good bullseye of snow may hit the nearby foothills. You might see slush in the morning. We return to a warm up beyond that.

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Figure 1 update: 10:1 snowfall ratio forecast for the next 5 days showing Fri/Sat snow amounts.

End Friday update.

Tuesday Update:

We should see temperatures today and Wednesday in the mid-80's.  The record high temperature for Tuesday is 80 set in 1982. The record high for Wednesday is 79 set in 2018.  Those should be easily broken.

Our Friday period of showers look less impressive than they did. I'm sorry if you were hoping for a lot of water.

End Tuesday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

We are about 10 degrees above normal this weekend (normal highs are around 60F).  We climb to far above normal by Tuesday/Wednesday with very summer-like temperatures (Figure 1). That is due to a powerful ridge that will dominate the U.S. (Figure 2). We are dry and snow-free through the 5 day forecast (Figure 3).

Easter Morning Sunrise Forecast:

Sunrise Sunday will be 6:31am. The temperature will be 36F with a light breeze (3mph) from the west. Skies will be mostly clear. This will be one of the nicest Easter mornings I can remember!

figure1_04082023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Tuesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the 5 day 10:1 ratio snowfall total map from the GFS and weather5280.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Our next Front will arrive Friday morning with a rapid increase in rain chances (Figure 1). It would be a good time to get your fertilizer down if you haven't already. This system involves a big cut-off low (from the jet stream flow) that rolls over Colorado for a few days (that is what we expect at this time - still 7 days away - Figure 4). We could get our first thunderstorms of spring with this system as well (Figure 5).

You can see the warm temperature inhibiting low altitude snow, but higher elevations may pick up significant snows in the central mountains (Figure 6). Longmont and Broomfield are on the edge of healthy amounts of water (1/2 to 1 inch?? Figure 7).

figure4_04082023
Figure 4: the 500mb upper air forecast map for NEXT Saturday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 5: the surface precipitation and pressure isobar forecast map for NEXT Saturday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 6: the 10 day 10:1 ratio snowfall total map from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 7: the 10 day rainfall total map from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

62°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.96 Rising
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
31 °F
Humidity
30%
Wind
E 2.7 mph
Gust
6.3 mph
Wind Chill
62 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 PM
55°F
Clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
53°F
Clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
51°F
Clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
49°F
Clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
48°F
Clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
46°F
Clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
45°F
Clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
43°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
46°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
51°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
9 AM
57°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
10 AM
62°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Saturday

78 °F

Sunshine, pleasant and warmer


Clear

Saturday Night

43 °F

Clear


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Mainly cloudy; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

51 °F

Becoming partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

59 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy, breezy and cooler with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

43 °F

Evening thundershowers; overcast


Thunderstorms

Tuesday

49 °F

Cloudy and chilly; breezy in the morning with periods of rain followed by afternoon thundershowers


Rain

Tuesday Night

41 °F

Rain


Showers

Wednesday

59 °F

Occasional morning rain and drizzle; otherwise, low clouds and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Partly to mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:58 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM

Based on AccuWeather data