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Tue Update The Front Range Forecast: More cold fronts and rain

In Brief:

More cool air brings in showers Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday update:

Wednesday will have seasonable temperatures until a couple of cool fronts invade the state cooling us and brining rain. It looks like about 1/2 inch of rain will fall over the region with some thunderstorm activity Thursday night.  Fall is trying to establish itself!

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Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Tuesday update.

Sunday update:

The cold front has arrived dropping temperatures around 10-15 degrees over the last week's average high.  There is a brief of time, this afternoon, that the first wave of thunderstorms may become severe enough to drop damaging hail.  The atmosphere will stabilize later this afternoon with rain showers off and on through the night through Monday afternoon. 

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Figure 1 update: the severe weather outlook from the SPC for Sunday (Day 1).

End Sunday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Hold on for one more day, Saturday will be hot before an evening cold front arrives (dashed blue line, Figure 1). This is driven by a trough digging into our high pressure bubble that has influenced the area for much of the last few weeks (Figure 2). Unusually high atmospheric moisture arrives with the front/trough (green shading in Figure 3) yielding a few thunderstorms and showers (Figure 4).

The good shower chances continue through Monday evening with maybe a quarter inch to a third inch of water for most areas (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the Sunday night 500 mb forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the Sunday night precipitation forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 4: the Sunday night precipitation forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Some shower chances and a slow warm up continues Tuesday and beyond.  Most areas get less than 3/4tth inch over the next 5 days (Figure 5).

Tropical Update:

Figure 6 shows the next 5 day forecast for major hurricane Lee out in the Atlantic. Most forecasts keep this storm out to sea, curving north then northeast over the next 10+ days. People on the northern east coast should still keep an eye on it.  This should reach a category 5 storm if it hasn't already. Winds are 150mph now, they only need to get to 157mph.

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Figure 5: The 5 day precipitation forecast from weather5280.com and the GFS.
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Figure 6: the NHC forecast for Lee.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

68°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.68 Falling
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
37 °F
Humidity
32%
Wind
NNW 4.6 mph
Gust
11.8 mph
Wind Chill
68 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 PM
66°F
Thunderstorms
Today
7 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
62°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 PM
59°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
57°F
Partly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
11 PM
55°F
Partly cloudy w/ t-storms
Tomorrow
12 AM
53°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
52°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
51°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
51°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
50°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
49°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

74 °F

Intervals of clouds and sunshine; a shower in the area late this morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday Night

48 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

76 °F

Pleasant with times of clouds and sun; breezy in the afternoon


Clear

Sunday Night

45 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Monday

79 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

48 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Tuesday

79 °F

Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

48 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Wednesday

85 °F

Partly sunny


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

47 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:36 AM
Sunset
8:19 PM

Based on AccuWeather data