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Sunday Update The Front Range Forecast: Heat and a few storms

In Brief:

Temperatures above normal with small afternoon storm chances.  A Colorado summer.

Sunday update:

We have warm and quiet weather for the next few days in Colorado but all eyes are on the rapidly weakening remains of (now) tropical storm Hilary. Many desert locations will receive a year's worth of water in a day or two with some mountain locations topping a foot of rain. This will be the headlines as the week begins. 

Locally, unrelated to Hilary, we should see rain and cooler weather returning later in the week.  A full update coming soon!

figure2_08202023
Figure 2 update: the water vapor satellite image from Sunday AM and NOAA.

End Sunday update.

Friday update:

The big news is the major hurricane headed for southern California where a widespread 2-5 inches of rain will fall this week (Figure 1 update). The storm remains arc through Idaho and in move into Canada.  Locally, we have some afternoon storm chances and temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average.

Another interesting note is the forecast of, what looks like a big tropical system, moving in to the Gulf and effecting Florida and the East Coast.  Interesting.

 

figure1_08182023
Figure 1 update: the total precipitation forecast from the GFS for the next 14 days and tropicaltidbits.

End Friday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

We start the weekend a bit below normal as temperatures go with a small chance of a wandering afternoon thunderstorm or two (Figure 1). Moisture over the regions is a pretty good but the lower atmosphere is fairly dry (Figure 2).  A pretty strong cold front arrives Sunday morning dropping us to the 70's in the low lands (Figure 3) but no real change to the small chance of a storm or two.

We dry out further as the week begins and temperatures begin to climb again. We reach temperatures a bit above average by Tuesday as the big high, that has been baking New Mexico and Texas for the mid-summer, edges northward again.

figure1_08121023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure2_08121023
Figure 2: the precipitatable water forecast for Sunday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.
figure3_08121023
Figure 3: the Sunday noon surface temperature departure from normal map for noon Sunday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Long Range Forecast:

Rainfall over the next 5 days (Figure 4) will be spotty and light (for most places).  Southern counties may pick up heavier precipitation. Over the next 10 days, more of the state should see those wandering storms.

figure4_08121023
Figure 4: the precipitation forecast for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure5_08121023
Figure 5: the precipitation forecast for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

68°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.22 Falling
Visibility
5 miles
Dewpoint
59 °F
Humidity
73%
Wind
ENE 1.2 mph
Gust
3.2 mph
Wind Chill
68 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 AM
69°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
12 PM
72°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
1 PM
75°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
2 PM
77°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
3 PM
79°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 PM
82°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
84°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
82°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
79°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
73°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
69°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Saturday

84 °F

Clouds and breaks of sun; smoke from area fires will lead to poor air quality


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

94 °F

Partly sunny with a passing shower in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

61 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Monday

91 °F

Considerable cloudiness


Mostly clear

Monday Night

60 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

84 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data