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Sunday Update The Front Range Forecast: Heat and a few storms

In Brief:

Temperatures above normal with small afternoon storm chances.  A Colorado summer.

Sunday update:

We have warm and quiet weather for the next few days in Colorado but all eyes are on the rapidly weakening remains of (now) tropical storm Hilary. Many desert locations will receive a year's worth of water in a day or two with some mountain locations topping a foot of rain. This will be the headlines as the week begins. 

Locally, unrelated to Hilary, we should see rain and cooler weather returning later in the week.  A full update coming soon!

figure2_08202023
Figure 2 update: the water vapor satellite image from Sunday AM and NOAA.

End Sunday update.

Friday update:

The big news is the major hurricane headed for southern California where a widespread 2-5 inches of rain will fall this week (Figure 1 update). The storm remains arc through Idaho and in move into Canada.  Locally, we have some afternoon storm chances and temperatures about 5-10 degrees above average.

Another interesting note is the forecast of, what looks like a big tropical system, moving in to the Gulf and effecting Florida and the East Coast.  Interesting.

 

figure1_08182023
Figure 1 update: the total precipitation forecast from the GFS for the next 14 days and tropicaltidbits.

End Friday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

We start the weekend a bit below normal as temperatures go with a small chance of a wandering afternoon thunderstorm or two (Figure 1). Moisture over the regions is a pretty good but the lower atmosphere is fairly dry (Figure 2).  A pretty strong cold front arrives Sunday morning dropping us to the 70's in the low lands (Figure 3) but no real change to the small chance of a storm or two.

We dry out further as the week begins and temperatures begin to climb again. We reach temperatures a bit above average by Tuesday as the big high, that has been baking New Mexico and Texas for the mid-summer, edges northward again.

figure1_08121023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure2_08121023
Figure 2: the precipitatable water forecast for Sunday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.
figure3_08121023
Figure 3: the Sunday noon surface temperature departure from normal map for noon Sunday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Long Range Forecast:

Rainfall over the next 5 days (Figure 4) will be spotty and light (for most places).  Southern counties may pick up heavier precipitation. Over the next 10 days, more of the state should see those wandering storms.

figure4_08121023
Figure 4: the precipitation forecast for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure5_08121023
Figure 5: the precipitation forecast for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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