In Brief:
A healthy chance of afternoon thunderstorms and rain through the next 10 days.
Sunday Update:
My chaperone duties in Washington DC come to an end today. A full update tomorrow! Plenty of moisture and daytime heating plust a favorable upper air pattern means we continue with a good chance of showers for most of the week ahead. Nothing severe on the plate.
Ens Sunday update.
Tuesday update:
The SPC graphic is not yet out today, but we have a Marginal risk of severe weather again today (1 out of 5). The primary risk is hail and high winds again. Keep an eye on the western sky!
End Tuesday update:
The Forecast Discussion;
The pattern is for moisture and instability to increase a bit each day for the next 10 days (Figure 1). The severe threat moves off to the east a bit (Figure 2), but storms can produce hail and heavy rain and winds for a few minutes at any time (pulse storms - Figure 2). We are quite warm for a few days, then cool as a trough moves in and increases rain chances a lot by Friday (Figure 1).
The Longer Range Forecast:
Over the next 5 days, we should see about a quater of an ince of precipitation in Longmont or Broomfield, unless a thunderstorm core hits your neighborhood (Figure 3). The increased precipitation chances later in the week may give us 1-2 inches of rain over that period (Figure 4). We are definitely in a wet pattern!
