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Sat Update: The Front Range Forecast:: Warm, small storm Sunday

In Brief:

A brief quick system passes Sunday night/Monday AM.  A better chance of snow is possible Thanksgiving.

Saturday Update:

As we "roast" in temperatures more than 15 degrees above normal (which is around 50F), attention turns to a weak, fast moving system that will impact the state Sunday afternoon/night.  Figure 2 update shows the low snow totals are mainly going to show in the mountains and Palmer Divide.  With air sinking down off the Rockies north of Denver, it looks like even rain will be hard to come by.  Like the showers earlier in the week, you might get a brief spot of rain, if  you are lucky.

There DOES seem to be a better snow-maker coming Thanksgiving night and Friday morning.  More on that later!

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Figure 2 update: the 10:1 snowfall ratio forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

End Saturday update.

Wednesday Update:

A passing ripple will create some rain in the mountains (snow very high up) Thursday (Figure 1 update).  A few showers may stray out to I-25 folks. There is a chance of snow on Monday in the mountains and a very small chance of some low altitude snow as well.  More later if needed.  There is a hint of a bigger change in the weather right after Thanksgiving.  Keep checking back!

 

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Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Wednesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

The normal high temperature for the next week drops from around 55F to 50F.  Even during the cool-down next weekend, we will just approach normal (Figure 1).  The big western ridge (blue line - Figure 2) is parked over us for days to come.

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Over the next 5 days, the GFS gives us NO precipitation (Figure 3). We do see the southwest half of the state getting *some* moisture next weekend (Figure 4) and some mountain snows (Figure 5). Super quiet for now.

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Figure 3: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 4: the 10 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 5: the 10 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

69°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.14 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
59 °F
Humidity
71%
Wind
NW 1.7 mph
Gust
2.9 mph
Wind Chill
69 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
67°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Tomorrow
1 AM
65°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
64°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
62°F
Clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
61°F
Clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
60°F
Clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
58°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
62°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
68°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
74°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
80°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
11 AM
84°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Saturday

82 °F

Clouds giving way to sun; high levels of ozone will lead to poor air quality


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

58 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

94 °F

Partly sunny with a passing shower in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

61 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

94 °F

Some sun, then increasing clouds with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Monday Night

60 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

81 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data