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Sat Update: The Front Range Forecast:: Warm, small storm Sunday

In Brief:

A brief quick system passes Sunday night/Monday AM.  A better chance of snow is possible Thanksgiving.

Saturday Update:

As we "roast" in temperatures more than 15 degrees above normal (which is around 50F), attention turns to a weak, fast moving system that will impact the state Sunday afternoon/night.  Figure 2 update shows the low snow totals are mainly going to show in the mountains and Palmer Divide.  With air sinking down off the Rockies north of Denver, it looks like even rain will be hard to come by.  Like the showers earlier in the week, you might get a brief spot of rain, if  you are lucky.

There DOES seem to be a better snow-maker coming Thanksgiving night and Friday morning.  More on that later!

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Figure 2 update: the 10:1 snowfall ratio forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

End Saturday update.

Wednesday Update:

A passing ripple will create some rain in the mountains (snow very high up) Thursday (Figure 1 update).  A few showers may stray out to I-25 folks. There is a chance of snow on Monday in the mountains and a very small chance of some low altitude snow as well.  More later if needed.  There is a hint of a bigger change in the weather right after Thanksgiving.  Keep checking back!

 

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Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Wednesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

The normal high temperature for the next week drops from around 55F to 50F.  Even during the cool-down next weekend, we will just approach normal (Figure 1).  The big western ridge (blue line - Figure 2) is parked over us for days to come.

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Over the next 5 days, the GFS gives us NO precipitation (Figure 3). We do see the southwest half of the state getting *some* moisture next weekend (Figure 4) and some mountain snows (Figure 5). Super quiet for now.

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Figure 3: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 4: the 10 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 5: the 10 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

69°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
30.21 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
49 °F
Humidity
49%
Wind
W 2.8 mph
Gust
6.4 mph
Wind Chill
69 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
70°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
68°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
7 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
61°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
56°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Tomorrow
1 AM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
54°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
53°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
53°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

78 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm or two this afternoon; thunderstorms can bring gusty winds, hail and localized flooding


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

50 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, increasing clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

73 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of thundershowers in the afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday Night

50 °F

A couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, clearing


Mostly sunny

Thursday

74 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Thursday Night

45 °F

Clear


Sunny

Friday

81 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

47 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

85 °F

Mostly sunny


Clear

Saturday Night

53 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
7:08 PM

Based on AccuWeather data