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Tue Update: The Front Range Forecast: Small snow chances, warm

In Brief:

Mild and seasonable weather this week, a chance of a rain/snow mix on Wednesday is the only weather event.

Tuesday Update:

Our mid-week shot of showers is almost here.  For a bit, it looked like 2-4 inches might hit the I-25 folks, but that has backed off in most modeling except for some of the 'global' models. The GFS is one such model and it has an inch of snow in spots around Boulder and southern Denver (Figure 1 update). Elsewhere, it is more like nothing or maybe a half inch of snow. Even the nearby foothills only see 2-3 inches. The NAM really underplays the snow and predicts nothing but maybe snow falling in the air or a dusting on grassy surfaces (Figure 2 update).

Temperatures remain pretty warm as well with highs only dipping into the lower 40's Wednesday. They bounce back to upper 40's the next day and 50's beyond that.

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Figure 1 update: the 5 day snowfall total from the GFS and weather5280
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Figure 2 update: the 5 day snowfall total from the NAM and weather5280

End Tuesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Temperatures will climb, first, into the 40's then the 50's as the weekend progresses and the new week begins (Figure 1). Snow will melt, just slowly.

figure1_0102023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

A somewhat weak (as it looks now) cut-off low will cross the state Tuesday and Wednesday (Figure 2). This means yet more snow for the mountains and a small chance of rain and snow on the Plains (Figure 3).  Rainfall/moisture totals are fairly unimpressive with nothing out on the northeast Plains (Figure 4). The GFS does give the I-25 folks 'some' snow from Longmont south, but it is very minimal (Figure 5).

We resume our warmer weather the next day and into the next weekend (Figure 1).  Check back here to see if this storm becomes anything more!

figure2_0102023
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air pattern forecast map for Wednesday from tropicaltidbits.com and the GFS
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Figure 3: the surface pressure and precipitation forecast map for Wednesday from tropicaltidbits.com and the GFS
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Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast map from weather5280 and the GFS
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Figure 5: the 5 day 10:1 ratio snowfall forecast map from weather5280 and the GFS

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

91°F

UV Index
8 Very High
Pressure
30.05 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
52 °F
Humidity
26%
Wind
SE 3.7 mph
Gust
8.1 mph
Wind Chill
91 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
91°F
Sunny
Today
1 PM
95°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
96°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
98°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
96°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
93°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
90°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
86°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
82°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 PM
78°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
75°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
71°F
Clear

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Wednesday

98 °F

Mostly sunny


Clear

Wednesday Night

60 °F

Clear


Thunderstorms

Thursday

99 °F

Mostly cloudy, the temperature near the record of 100; a stray afternoon t-shower; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday Night

61 °F

A thundershower in spots early in the evening; partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

92 °F

Rather cloudy with a thunderstorm on the prowl in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

63 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday

89 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Sunday

92 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy


Clear

Sunday Night

58 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:10 AM
Sunset
8:00 PM

Based on AccuWeather data