In Brief:
Unusual warmth into the new week, then a return of fall showers.
Saturday PM update:
A strong upper ripple in the atmosphere (short wave) is working on the very small amount of moisture we have over the state to create a few thunderstorms this evening. Much of the rain is re-evaporating on the way down (virga) but there have been a few showers that have almost made the ground wet.
End Saturday PM update.
The Forecast Discussion:
The persistent Western ridge remains in place through Monday keeping temperatures about 10 degrees above normal and giving us dry conditions (Figure 1).
The Longer Range Forecast:
Monday night, a trough replaces the ridge brining cooler windy weather to the state (Figure 2). Moisture will be low and showers very scattered (Figure 3).
Rainfall totals are light with many locations seeing nothing (Figure 4). There will be a dusting of high altitude snow as well (Figure 5). It won't break our dry streak, but it may be a sign of more seasonable weather settling in.
