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Sat Update: The Front Range Forecast: Quiet Fall Weather- Still

In Brief:

Very calm and seasonable Fall weather. No excitement for a while.

The Saturday Update:

We enjoyed some clouds, winds and a drop in temperatures with a cold front Saturday afternoon, but no rain fell.  For the next week, we just keeping having only slightly above normal temperatures, clear skies, and dry conditions (Figure 2 update). There is a hint of a change coming next weekend, but rain signals like that have appeared 'about a week out' and have then vanished from the models.  Most of Colorado is expected to stay very dry for the next 5-7 days (Figure 3 update).

figure2u_10152022
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure3u_10152022
Figure 3 update: the 5 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

End Saturday update.

The Monday Update:

Other than Tuesday being a bit warmer and a touch windy, we have very calm and seasonable weather for the week (Figure 1 update).  Enjoy!

Figure1u_10102022
Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Monday update.

Forecast Discussion:

A dry cold front will make Friday a bit chilly but rain chances are low (Figure 1). Beyond that, we stay very close to seasonable temperatures for the next week (except Tuesday where we approach 80F).  There are record high's in the 80s through October and we have broken 80F twice in November historically. We may not yet be done with temperatures that warm.  You just won't notice the weather much this week as we have dry northwest flow aloft (with a distant low over the southern AZ and CA region) all week.

Figure1_10062022
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure2_10062022
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com for Noon Saturday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Next Tuesday/Wednesday, there is a trough that swings past the state. There are very low (at this time) rain chances in Colorado (Figure 1 and 3) next week. The five-day precipitation totals hit mainly southern counties only (Figure 4). 

Figure3_10062022
Figure 3: the 6 hour precipitation total around midnight Tuesday/Wednesday next week from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_10062022
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

93°F

UV Index
7 High
Pressure
30.19 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
44 °F
Humidity
18%
Wind
E 3.3 mph
Gust
7.8 mph
Wind Chill
93 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 PM
93°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
93°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
91°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
88°F
Cloudy
Today
8 PM
85°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 PM
81°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
76°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
72°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
70°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
69°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
68°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
66°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Sunday

93 °F

Thickening clouds with a passing shower this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

64 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

95 °F

Some sunshine giving way to clouds with a thunderstorm in the area late in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Intervals of clouds and sunshine


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

84 °F

Times of sun and clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Cloudy

Thursday

81 °F

Cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:42 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data