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Sat Update: The Front Range Forecast: Quiet Fall Weather- Still

In Brief:

Very calm and seasonable Fall weather. No excitement for a while.

The Saturday Update:

We enjoyed some clouds, winds and a drop in temperatures with a cold front Saturday afternoon, but no rain fell.  For the next week, we just keeping having only slightly above normal temperatures, clear skies, and dry conditions (Figure 2 update). There is a hint of a change coming next weekend, but rain signals like that have appeared 'about a week out' and have then vanished from the models.  Most of Colorado is expected to stay very dry for the next 5-7 days (Figure 3 update).

figure2u_10152022
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure3u_10152022
Figure 3 update: the 5 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

End Saturday update.

The Monday Update:

Other than Tuesday being a bit warmer and a touch windy, we have very calm and seasonable weather for the week (Figure 1 update).  Enjoy!

Figure1u_10102022
Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Monday update.

Forecast Discussion:

A dry cold front will make Friday a bit chilly but rain chances are low (Figure 1). Beyond that, we stay very close to seasonable temperatures for the next week (except Tuesday where we approach 80F).  There are record high's in the 80s through October and we have broken 80F twice in November historically. We may not yet be done with temperatures that warm.  You just won't notice the weather much this week as we have dry northwest flow aloft (with a distant low over the southern AZ and CA region) all week.

Figure1_10062022
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure2_10062022
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com for Noon Saturday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Next Tuesday/Wednesday, there is a trough that swings past the state. There are very low (at this time) rain chances in Colorado (Figure 1 and 3) next week. The five-day precipitation totals hit mainly southern counties only (Figure 4). 

Figure3_10062022
Figure 3: the 6 hour precipitation total around midnight Tuesday/Wednesday next week from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_10062022
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

70°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.56 Falling
Visibility
9 miles
Dewpoint
21 °F
Humidity
16%
Wind
WNW 3.8 mph
Gust
10 mph
Wind Chill
70 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
64°F
Clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
62°F
Clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
59°F
Clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
57°F
Clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
54°F
Clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
51°F
Clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
49°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
51°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
56°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
61°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
65°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
11 AM
67°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

88 °F

Very warm with the temperature approaching the record of 92 set in 1962 with increasing amounts of sunshine


Clear

Tuesday Night

49 °F

Breezy this evening; otherwise, clear


Partly sunny

Wednesday

73 °F

Cooler with sunshine giving way to clouds; windy in the afternoon; elevated fire risk due to gusty winds and low humidity


Cloudy

Wednesday Night

46 °F

Overcast


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

71 °F

Breezy and pleasant with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

43 °F

Overcast in the evening, then partly cloudy late


Intermittent clouds

Friday

73 °F

Beautiful with times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

71 °F

Turning cloudy with a passing shower in the afternoon


Cloudy

Saturday Night

45 °F

Cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:47 AM
Sunset
8:07 PM

Based on AccuWeather data