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Sat Update: The Front Range Forecast: Quiet Fall Weather- Still

In Brief:

Very calm and seasonable Fall weather. No excitement for a while.

The Saturday Update:

We enjoyed some clouds, winds and a drop in temperatures with a cold front Saturday afternoon, but no rain fell.  For the next week, we just keeping having only slightly above normal temperatures, clear skies, and dry conditions (Figure 2 update). There is a hint of a change coming next weekend, but rain signals like that have appeared 'about a week out' and have then vanished from the models.  Most of Colorado is expected to stay very dry for the next 5-7 days (Figure 3 update).

figure2u_10152022
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure3u_10152022
Figure 3 update: the 5 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

End Saturday update.

The Monday Update:

Other than Tuesday being a bit warmer and a touch windy, we have very calm and seasonable weather for the week (Figure 1 update).  Enjoy!

Figure1u_10102022
Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Monday update.

Forecast Discussion:

A dry cold front will make Friday a bit chilly but rain chances are low (Figure 1). Beyond that, we stay very close to seasonable temperatures for the next week (except Tuesday where we approach 80F).  There are record high's in the 80s through October and we have broken 80F twice in November historically. We may not yet be done with temperatures that warm.  You just won't notice the weather much this week as we have dry northwest flow aloft (with a distant low over the southern AZ and CA region) all week.

Figure1_10062022
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure2_10062022
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com for Noon Saturday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Next Tuesday/Wednesday, there is a trough that swings past the state. There are very low (at this time) rain chances in Colorado (Figure 1 and 3) next week. The five-day precipitation totals hit mainly southern counties only (Figure 4). 

Figure3_10062022
Figure 3: the 6 hour precipitation total around midnight Tuesday/Wednesday next week from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_10062022
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

58°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.28 Rising
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
48 °F
Humidity
70%
Wind
NNE 2.8 mph
Gust
6.6 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
55°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
54°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
53°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Tomorrow
1 AM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
52°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
51°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
51°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
50°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
6 AM
50°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
7 AM
51°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
8 AM
54°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
57°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

78 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm or two this afternoon; thunderstorms can bring gusty winds, hail and localized flooding


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Tuesday Night

50 °F

A couple of thunderstorms this evening; otherwise, increasing clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

73 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of thundershowers in the afternoon


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday Night

50 °F

A couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, clearing


Mostly sunny

Thursday

74 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Thursday Night

45 °F

Clear


Sunny

Friday

81 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

47 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

85 °F

Mostly sunny


Clear

Saturday Night

53 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
7:08 PM

Based on AccuWeather data