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The Front Range Forecast: Real cold and some snow arrive

In Brief:

We are on the western edge of a massive cold air outbreak that is hitting the U.S. Some snow.

The Forecast Discussion:

A line between Longmont and Lyons will be the western edge of very cold air that is spreading over the nation (Figure 5). The first shot of cold air hits Thursday keeping temperatures below freezing for a day and a half and light snow on the lower elevations, healthy snow up in the mountains (Figure 1, Figure 2-4).

The low lands should see an inch or less of snow while the mountains get up to 6 inches (Figure 2-4). Even though Friday sees a brief warm up, Thursday, and Saturday through Monday will be very cold.  We "might" see a high on Sunday between 0F and 8F (models don't predict extremes well- Figure 5).

This is a fairly extended period of very cold air with a shot of snow Thursday, and Sat/Sun/Mon AM's.  If I can narrow down snow amounts better, I'll post it here, but it is a different kind of storm (multiple weak pulses in very cold air).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherundreground.com
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Figure 2: the 10:1 snowfall forecast for the next 48 hours (through Thursday) from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 3: the 10:1 snowfall forecast for the next 48 hours (through Thursday) from the NAM and weather5280.com
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Figure 4: the snowfall forecast from weather5280.com and Matt Makens through Thursday.
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Figure 5: the 2 meter above ground temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for Sunday noon from the GFS and weather5280.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Over the next 10 days, the low lands (except north of Fort Collins) still won't see much snow, but the mountains will pick up an important 1 -2 feet (Figure 6). After that we warm up to near normal and return to mostly dry conditions (Figure 1).

figure6_01102024
Figure 6: the 10:1 snowfall forecast for the next 10 days from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

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UV Index
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Pressure
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7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Saturday

82 °F

Clouds giving way to sun; high levels of ozone will lead to poor air quality


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

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A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

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94 °F

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Partly cloudy

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Some sun, then increasing clouds with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


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92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

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60 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

81 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


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An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy


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Based on AccuWeather data