In Brief:
Severe weather again today then dry.
Tuesday update:
Amazingly, the afternoon severe weather chances continue now into the second week of August (Figure 2 update). The risk near I-25 and in the mountains is for hail and high winds. Just a bit east of I-25, there is a chance of an isolated tornado or two. As always, keep an eye out to the western/northwestern sky this afternoon. It looks like we get a break Wednesday!
End Tuesday update.
Sunday update:
High surface moisture levels and favorable wind directions and speeds throughout the atmosphere over Colorado means, yes, more hail in the stronger late afternoon and evening storms today (Figure 1 update). The Storm Prediction Center also noted that they may need to up the hail chances from Marginal (1 out of 5 risk) to Slight (2 out of 5) as more data comes in today,
End Sunday update.
Forecast Discussion:
A cool front has arrived and is bringing a surge of moisture back to the I-25 communities. With a short wave expected to arrive this afternoon, we should see a spike in thunderstorm activity again (Figure 1). There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) of severe weather north of Longmont, a slight risk (2 out of 5) south and east of Longmont, and an enhanced risk (3 out of 5) southeast of Denver and east of Colorado Springs (Figure 2).
The enhanced risk region has a chance of tornadoes (Figure 3) while the marginal and slight regions have a chance for damaging hail and high winds (Figure 4). The severe chances keep rolling!
We will see pretty cool weather Sunday and remain below normal through mid-week (Figure 1).
The Longer Range Forecast:
The end of the week sees normal high temperatures return (Figure 1) with rain, over the next 5 days, falling largely in the mountains and eastern plains.
