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Tuesday update: The Front Range Forecast: Severe still!

In Brief:

Severe weather again today then dry. 

Tuesday update:

Amazingly, the afternoon severe weather chances continue now into the second week of August (Figure 2 update). The risk near I-25 and in the mountains is for hail and high winds.  Just a bit east of I-25, there is a chance of an isolated tornado or two. As always, keep an eye out to the western/northwestern sky this afternoon. It looks like we get a break Wednesday!

 

figure2u_08082023
Figure 2 update: the Day 1, Tuesday SPC severe weather forecast.

End Tuesday update.

Sunday update:

High surface moisture levels and favorable wind directions and speeds throughout the atmosphere over Colorado means, yes, more hail in the stronger late afternoon and evening storms today (Figure 1 update). The Storm Prediction Center also noted that they may need to up the hail chances from Marginal (1 out of 5 risk) to Slight (2 out of 5) as more data comes in today,

figure1_08062023
Figure 1 update: the hail forecast map from the SPC and NOAA for Sunday.

End Sunday update.

Forecast Discussion:

A cool front has arrived and is bringing a surge of moisture back to the I-25 communities. With a short wave expected to arrive this afternoon, we should see a spike in thunderstorm activity again (Figure 1). There is a marginal risk (1 out of 5) of severe weather north of Longmont, a slight risk (2 out of 5) south and east of Longmont, and an enhanced risk (3 out of 5) southeast of Denver and east of Colorado Springs (Figure 2).

The enhanced risk region has a chance of tornadoes (Figure 3) while the marginal and slight regions have a chance for damaging hail and high winds (Figure 4). The severe chances keep rolling!

We will see pretty cool weather Sunday and remain below normal through mid-week (Figure 1).

figure1_08052023
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure2_08052023
Figure 2: the SPC severe weather outlook for Saturday (Day 1).
figure3_08052023
Figure 3: the SPC tornado outlook for Saturday (Day 1).
figure4_08052023
Figure 4: the SPC hail outlook for Saturday (Day 1).

The Longer Range Forecast:

The end of the week sees normal high temperatures return (Figure 1) with rain, over the next 5 days, falling largely in the mountains and eastern plains.

figure5_08052023
Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

31°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.29 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
80%
Wind
WNW 1.1 mph
Gust
2.2 mph
Wind Chill
31 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 PM
34°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
34°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
33°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
32°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
32°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
31°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
31°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
30°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
30°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
7 AM
31°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
8 AM
33°F
Partly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
36°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Tuesday

56 °F

Mostly sunny and mild


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

30 °F

Patchy clouds


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Mild with times of clouds and sun


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

32 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Thursday

61 °F

Mostly sunny and mild


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

30 °F

Partly cloudy


Snow

Friday

36 °F

Much colder with periods of snow, accumulating an inch or two


Snow

Friday Night

17 °F

Colder with periods of snow, accumulating an inch or two; storm total snowfall 1-3 inches


Partly sunny w/ flurries

Saturday

37 °F

A couple of morning flurries; otherwise, clouds yielding to sun


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

17 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:07 AM
Sunset
4:35 PM

Based on AccuWeather data