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The Front Range Forecast: Severe Weather nearby

In Brief:

Severe weather chances near the Front Range today, cool with rain chances in the short term.

The Forecast Discussion:

A trough (red line west of Colorado) is approaching bringing a cool front and instability (Figure 2 and 1). A fair amount of Gulf moisture has moved in from the east setting us up for a few rounds of severe weather. There is a Marginal risk of severe weather  (1 on a scale of 1 to 5) from Red Feather Lakes to Ft. Collins, to Loveland to just east of Ft. Lupton down to about DIA and eastward (Figure 3). This includes a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given spot.

There is a Slight risk (2 on a 1-5 scale) from about Cheyenne to just east of Greeley to about Limon and east. There is a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot in that risk zone.  There is a 5% chance for strong damaging winds and large hail within the Marginal risk zone and a 15% chance in the Slight risk zone (within 25 miles of a location).

Stay alert to any watches and warnings form the NWS. These risk zones may get updated as the afternoon approaches. Areas to the west (which will have more garden variety thunderstorms) could be included in the risk zones if needed.

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the Day 1 severe weather forecast (today, Monday) from the SPC in Norman, OK.
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Figure 3: the Day 1 tornado weather forecast (today, Monday) from the SPC in Norman, OK.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We warm up in a couple of days, then return to daily chances of afternoon thunderstorms (Figure 1). Rainfall totals over the next 5 days will be light,except for those that get a good storm (Figure 5). Snow will still fall at the higher elevations (Figure 6).

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Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 6: the 5 day 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

74°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.79 Falling
Visibility
14 miles
Dewpoint
45 °F
Humidity
35%
Wind
SSW 1.6 mph
Gust
4.6 mph
Wind Chill
74 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
73°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
79°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
86°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
90°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
94°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
96°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
97°F
Mostly sunny
Today
3 PM
99°F
Mostly sunny
Today
4 PM
98°F
Mostly sunny
Today
5 PM
97°F
Mostly sunny
Today
6 PM
95°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 PM
92°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Sunday

99 °F

Mostly sunny and hot; stay hydrated when outside in the heat


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

64 °F

Mainly clear and mild


Partly sunny

Monday

97 °F

Hot with sun and some clouds; unattended vehicles can become dangerously hot


Mostly clear

Monday Night

63 °F

Clear to partly cloudy and mild


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

98 °F

Mostly sunny and hot


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

61 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Wednesday

95 °F

Partly sunny with a thunderstorm around in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

65 °F

Partly cloudy and mild


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

94 °F

Mostly cloudy and very warm; an afternoon thunderstorm in a couple of spots


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

64 °F

Partly cloudy and mild


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:32 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM

Based on AccuWeather data