In Brief:
Severe weather chances near the Front Range today, cool with rain chances in the short term.
The Forecast Discussion:
A trough (red line west of Colorado) is approaching bringing a cool front and instability (Figure 2 and 1). A fair amount of Gulf moisture has moved in from the east setting us up for a few rounds of severe weather. There is a Marginal risk of severe weather (1 on a scale of 1 to 5) from Red Feather Lakes to Ft. Collins, to Loveland to just east of Ft. Lupton down to about DIA and eastward (Figure 3). This includes a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any given spot.
There is a Slight risk (2 on a 1-5 scale) from about Cheyenne to just east of Greeley to about Limon and east. There is a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any spot in that risk zone. There is a 5% chance for strong damaging winds and large hail within the Marginal risk zone and a 15% chance in the Slight risk zone (within 25 miles of a location).
Stay alert to any watches and warnings form the NWS. These risk zones may get updated as the afternoon approaches. Areas to the west (which will have more garden variety thunderstorms) could be included in the risk zones if needed.
The Longer Range Forecast:
We warm up in a couple of days, then return to daily chances of afternoon thunderstorms (Figure 1). Rainfall totals over the next 5 days will be light,except for those that get a good storm (Figure 5). Snow will still fall at the higher elevations (Figure 6).
