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Sun Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snow totals, warming up

In Brief:

We warm up this week until a Thursday/Friday next-chance of snow.

Sunday update:

The storm DID travel further south than originally thought, but a convergence line set up east of I-25 giving Firestone and Greeley and places north and south long that line a lot more snow than I-25 received.  Longmont only got around 1-3 inches (Figure 1 update) while Boulder, usually the snow leader) got less than an inch in most spots.

We dry out and warm up until a possible Thursday/Fridaty storm!  Stay tuned.

figure1u_02112024
Figure 1 update: snowfall totals up to Saturday 7am from CoCoRaHS.

End Sunday update.

Friday update:

The storm is taking, literally, a right turn, and is digging deeper to the south. The winter storm watch that was in place has been downgraded to an advisory (below).  Many of the bigger impacts that were expected will now move through New Mexico and Southern Colorado. Sorry, if you were hoping for a big one.

Winter Weather Advisory

Issued: 12:47 PM Feb. 9, 2024 – National Weather Service

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches with a few locations seeing up to 8 inches, mainly in and near the foothills.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, and northeast Colorado.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM MST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads will likely become slick and hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Roads will be slick resulting in slow and hazardous travel. Allow extra time to reach your destination.Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Snowfall Roundup:

Weatherunderground.com  Tr-2"
GFS   2-3"
NAM   1-2"
Canadian  2-4"
Channel 7    4.5"
Channel 9    3.2"
Weather5280 (Matt M.)   1-4"
Accuweather   4-8"

My forecast: 1-3" is the best bet (yesterday I thought 3-5").

End Friday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Warm temperatures and scattered shower are the story for the end of the week. Friday will see increasing chances of snow showers (a coating in spots, 1/2 in other spots) or light rain showers throughout the day.  The next storm system picks up after 5-7pm with rapidly increasing snowfall chances (Figure 1). The snow will continue to dump off and on snow through midnight Sunday morning.

This is fueled by a deep trough (Figure 2) that is colder than the last one (highs closer to freezing than last week - see Figure 3). This system, like the last, will pull a drink of moist Gulf air in on Saturday as well (Figure 4).

The storm begins Friday night and is rather local but persistent by midday Saturday (Figure 5).  I'll create the Snowfall Roundup tonight or Friday AM, but you can see the models 48 hours out below.

The GFS (Figure 6) gives Longmont 8-10 inches.  The Canadian (Figure 7) 6-7 inches.  Finally, the NAM puts us in the 5-7 inch zone (Figure 8). While the weatherunderground model only gives us 4-6 inches (Figure 1).

figure1_02082024
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Saturday PM from tropicaltidbits.com and the GFS.
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Figure 3: the 2 meter temperature anomaly (departure from average) forecast map for Saturday PM from tropicaltidbits.com and the GFS.
figure4_02082024
Figure 4: the 2 meter temperature anomaly (departure from average) forecast map for Saturday PM from tropicaltidbits.com and the GFS.
figure5_02082024
Figure 5: the surface forecast map for Saturday PM from tropicaltidbits.com and the GFS.
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Figure 6: the 10:1 snowfall forecast map for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 7: the 10:1 snowfall forecast map for Saturday PM from tropicaltidbits.com and the Canadian model.
figure8_02082024
Figure 8: the 10:1 snowfall forecast map for Saturday PM from tropicaltidbits.com and the North American model.

The Front Range Forecast:

After this storm, we return to quiet 40's for high temperaures into next weekend.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

51°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.91 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
8 °F
Humidity
17%
Wind
WSW 6 mph
Gust
14.5 mph
Wind Chill
51 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
11 PM
48°F
Clear
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46°F
Clear
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Clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
43°F
Mostly clear
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42°F
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Tomorrow
4 AM
40°F
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39°F
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38°F
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39°F
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Tomorrow
8 AM
42°F
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9 AM
45°F
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Tomorrow
10 AM
52°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Saturday

61 °F

Mild with brilliant sunshine; gusty winds and excessively dry weather result in a high fire threat


Clear

Saturday Night

38 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Sunday

64 °F

Mostly sunny, breezy and mild


Windy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Very windy; mild with increasing clouds


Windy

Monday

63 °F

Winds becoming strong; mostly cloudy and mild


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Monday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy and windy; a passing shower late


Snow

Tuesday

41 °F

Windy and cooler with periods of snow, accumulating 1-3 inches


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

14 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

45 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

23 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:42 AM
Sunset
5:46 PM

Based on AccuWeather data