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The Front Range Forecast: Small storm now, larger storm later

In Brief:

A small storm moves by Sunday/Monday followed by another warm-up.  Much better snows possible Thanksgiving night.

Forecast Discussion:

A quick moving, weakening system, is sweeping the state Sunday night and Monday morning.  There are very low chances of rain (overnight flurry?) along I-25 (Figure 1).

Showers will be scattered and mainly found in the mountains (Figure 2). The GFS does not give areas north of Denver any measurable snow (Figure 3) or rain (Figure 4). We warm up again through Wednesday (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 6 hour precipitation forecast map centered on Monday sunrise from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the 3 day 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 4: the 3 day liquid equivalent precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

The next series of cold fronts begin to hit Thursday/Thanksgiving and Friday dropping temperatures to freezing levels for highs (Figure 1). This is a slower and larger system than the current one (Figure 6) powered by a deep upper air Low (Figure 5). It looks like mountain locations get 4-12 inches in spots while areas along I-25 may see a 3-6 inch storm.  I'll keep you updated with a Snowfall Roundup later in the week.

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Figure 5: the 500mb upper air forecast map centered for Monday sunrise from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

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Figure 6: the 6 hour precipitation forecast map centered on Friday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 7: the 9 day 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

68°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.14 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
58 °F
Humidity
70%
Wind
WNW 1.7 mph
Gust
2.9 mph
Wind Chill
68 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
67°F
Partly cloudy w/ showers
Tomorrow
1 AM
65°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
64°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
62°F
Clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
61°F
Clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
60°F
Clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
58°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
7 AM
62°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
8 AM
68°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
74°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
80°F
Mostly sunny
Tomorrow
11 AM
84°F
Mostly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Saturday

82 °F

Clouds giving way to sun; high levels of ozone will lead to poor air quality


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

58 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

94 °F

Partly sunny with a passing shower in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

61 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

94 °F

Some sun, then increasing clouds with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Monday Night

60 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

81 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data