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The Front Range Forecast: Small storm now, larger storm later

In Brief:

A small storm moves by Sunday/Monday followed by another warm-up.  Much better snows possible Thanksgiving night.

Forecast Discussion:

A quick moving, weakening system, is sweeping the state Sunday night and Monday morning.  There are very low chances of rain (overnight flurry?) along I-25 (Figure 1).

Showers will be scattered and mainly found in the mountains (Figure 2). The GFS does not give areas north of Denver any measurable snow (Figure 3) or rain (Figure 4). We warm up again through Wednesday (Figure 1).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 6 hour precipitation forecast map centered on Monday sunrise from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 3: the 3 day 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 4: the 3 day liquid equivalent precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

The next series of cold fronts begin to hit Thursday/Thanksgiving and Friday dropping temperatures to freezing levels for highs (Figure 1). This is a slower and larger system than the current one (Figure 6) powered by a deep upper air Low (Figure 5). It looks like mountain locations get 4-12 inches in spots while areas along I-25 may see a 3-6 inch storm.  I'll keep you updated with a Snowfall Roundup later in the week.

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Figure 5: the 500mb upper air forecast map centered for Monday sunrise from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

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Figure 6: the 6 hour precipitation forecast map centered on Friday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 7: the 9 day 10:1 snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Clear

Clear

47°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.29 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
42 °F
Humidity
82%
Wind
WNW 1.7 mph
Gust
3.5 mph
Wind Chill
47 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 AM
49°F
Clear
Today
3 AM
48°F
Mostly clear
Today
4 AM
46°F
Mostly clear
Today
5 AM
45°F
Mostly clear
Today
6 AM
44°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
47°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
52°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
58°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
64°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
67°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
70°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
72°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Thursday

71 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy, pleasant and warmer


Clear

Thursday Night

44 °F

Clear


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Friday

75 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon


Mostly clear

Friday Night

45 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

81 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and very warm


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

44 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

83 °F

Very warm with sunshine mixing with some clouds; windy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

48 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Monday

84 °F

Very warm with more clouds than sunshine


Mostly clear

Monday Night

52 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:52 AM
Sunset
8:02 PM

Based on AccuWeather data