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Wed Update:The Front Range Forecast: Smoke now, storms later

In Brief:

Smoke for a bit longer, clearer air and afternoon thunderstorms begin.

Wednesday Update:

Change is coming to the weather today! There is about a 40% chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. There is also a chance that the storms today may reach severe levels with hail and high winds being the primary threat (Figure 1 update).  The air coming in behind these storms should be more from the southwest and noticeably improve our air quality, cleaning out the smoke from the ongoing Canadian fires.

We have a lower chance of thunderstorms on Thursday, and a better chance, again, on Friday.  The storms on these days may reach severe levels as well, with hail and high winds still the primary threat. But you'll be able to breath easier!

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Figure 1 update: the Day 1 SPC severe weather forecast for Wednesday.

End Wednesday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

After a few Saturday afternoon showers, the weather turns calm for a couple of days (Figure 1). The real problem is smoke.  Giant forest fires in Canada (and Mexico) are pumping the westerlies full of smoke (Figure 2). By Sunday, another surge of very bad air is headed our way (Figure 3).  Eventually, westerly then southwesterly winds will clean the air by mid- week and later in the week.

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the RAP smoke forecast for Wednesday PM from NOAA.
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Figure 3: the RAP smoke forecast for Thursday PM from NOAA.

The Longer Range forecast:

With increased tropical moisture and southerly winds, the smoke will clear and rain chances will increase in the afternoons starting Tuesday (Figure 4). Wandering storms will give the I-25 folks a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain over the next 5 days - more rain for the mountains (Figure 5).

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Figure 4: the surface precipitation forecast map for Tuesday PM from tropicaltidbits and the GFS model
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Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

56°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.92 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
49 °F
Humidity
75%
Wind
N 2.3 mph
Gust
5 mph
Wind Chill
56 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
3 AM
55°F
Cloudy
Today
4 AM
54°F
Cloudy
Today
5 AM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
6 AM
54°F
Cloudy
Today
7 AM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
8 AM
58°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 AM
61°F
Cloudy
Today
10 AM
64°F
Cloudy
Today
11 AM
66°F
Cloudy
Today
12 PM
69°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
71°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
2 PM
72°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

79 °F

Clouds and sunshine with a heavy thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms could bring damaging winds, flash flooding and hail


Thunderstorms

Wednesday Night

53 °F

Overcast


Thunderstorms

Thursday

73 °F

Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots late this afternoon


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday Night

50 °F

An evening thunderstorm in spots; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Friday

73 °F

Intervals of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

50 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Thunderstorms

Saturday

64 °F

Cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm


Mostly cloudy

Saturday Night

49 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Cloudy

Sunday

68 °F

Considerable cloudiness with a stray thunderstorm in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Sunday Night

54 °F

Considerable cloudiness with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly early


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:34 AM
Sunset
8:23 PM

Based on AccuWeather data