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Wed Update:The Front Range Forecast: Smoke now, storms later

In Brief:

Smoke for a bit longer, clearer air and afternoon thunderstorms begin.

Wednesday Update:

Change is coming to the weather today! There is about a 40% chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon. There is also a chance that the storms today may reach severe levels with hail and high winds being the primary threat (Figure 1 update).  The air coming in behind these storms should be more from the southwest and noticeably improve our air quality, cleaning out the smoke from the ongoing Canadian fires.

We have a lower chance of thunderstorms on Thursday, and a better chance, again, on Friday.  The storms on these days may reach severe levels as well, with hail and high winds still the primary threat. But you'll be able to breath easier!

figure1u_05242023
Figure 1 update: the Day 1 SPC severe weather forecast for Wednesday.

End Wednesday update.

The Forecast Discussion:

After a few Saturday afternoon showers, the weather turns calm for a couple of days (Figure 1). The real problem is smoke.  Giant forest fires in Canada (and Mexico) are pumping the westerlies full of smoke (Figure 2). By Sunday, another surge of very bad air is headed our way (Figure 3).  Eventually, westerly then southwesterly winds will clean the air by mid- week and later in the week.

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the RAP smoke forecast for Wednesday PM from NOAA.
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Figure 3: the RAP smoke forecast for Thursday PM from NOAA.

The Longer Range forecast:

With increased tropical moisture and southerly winds, the smoke will clear and rain chances will increase in the afternoons starting Tuesday (Figure 4). Wandering storms will give the I-25 folks a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain over the next 5 days - more rain for the mountains (Figure 5).

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Figure 4: the surface precipitation forecast map for Tuesday PM from tropicaltidbits and the GFS model
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Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

70°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
30.21 Falling
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
60 °F
Humidity
69%
Wind
NE 1.7 mph
Gust
3.7 mph
Wind Chill
70 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
73°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
1 PM
76°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
2 PM
78°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
3 PM
80°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
4 PM
82°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
84°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
82°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
79°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
73°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
69°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Saturday

84 °F

Clouds and breaks of sun; smoke from area fires will lead to poor air quality


Partly cloudy

Saturday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

94 °F

Partly sunny with a passing shower in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

61 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Monday

91 °F

Considerable cloudiness


Mostly clear

Monday Night

60 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

84 °F

Not as warm with times of clouds and sun; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data