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Friday Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snow in the New Year?

In Brief:

The New Year brings a few chances of snow this week.

Friday update:

We stay near normal for high temperatures this week (hovering near the low 40's). Figure 1 update shows mountain snow over the next three days. Areas near I-25 and the foothills won't see much in the way of measurable snow. Sorry, winter is moving on quietly.

figure3u_01052024
Figure 1 update: the 10:1 ratio snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com over the next 3 days.

End Friday update.

Forecast Discussion:

We start the year still quite warm and dry (Figure 1). Thursday will see our next chance of precipitation. The National Weather Service (Figure 2) has things quite over-covered with snow, but it shows the low on the CO and NM border. The GFS has the low further south and the heavier snow down south as well (Figure 3).  That same model skips the I-25 corridor and drops measurable snow to areas southeast of Denver this time (Figure 4).

Temperatures return to normal on Friday.

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Figure 1: The 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the NWS surface weather forecast map for Friday AM.
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Figure 3: the surface weather forecast map from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com for Sun/Mon midnight
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Figure 4: the three day 10:1 ratio snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

The next system moves in late Saturday night with a better chance of snow Sunday afternoon/night (Figure 1). This low is further north creating upslope flow in northern Colorado and Wyoming. Areas around I-25 may see 1-3 inches this time with a half foot to a foot in mountain locations (Figure 6).  Then there is a hint of another system beyond that.  I'll update on these next storms later!

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Figure 5: the surface weather forecast map from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com for Thurs/Fri midnight
figure6_01022024
Figure 6: the seven day 10:1 ratio snowfall forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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