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The Front Range Forecast: Snow totals, rain this week, then heat

In Brief:

The week starts cool and wet then the heat returns.

Forecast Discussion:

The snowfall reports are coming in (as of 7am) while the storm seems to have ended earlier than expected. Longmont received about 1.5 inches (though there are a couple of higher reports, 4 and 5 inches, I'm not sure about those- Figure 1). Boulder received 5-7 inches.  Broomfield got about 5-6 inches. Most locations received about 3/4th of an inch of water.

Our next front arrives Sunday afternoon followed by some low elevation rain (about a quarter inch) and mountain snows (Figure 2 and 3).

 

Figure0_05212022
Figure 1: the snowfall totals from CoCoRaHS as of Saturday 7am.
Figure1_05212022
Figure 2: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure2_05212022
Figure 3: the surface analysis map for Sunday from NOAA.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Yet another front arrives Monday afternoon with maybe 1/3 ro 1/2 inch of rain (Figure 2 and 5). This is driven by another healthy upper air trough (Figure 4). There is thunder possible with both Sunday's and Monday's fronts (Figure 6).

Over the next 5 days, Longmont should see about 3/4th inch of rain.  Broomfield should do better and top an inch. I-25 north of Denver should remain snow free, but the nearby mountains will get buried (Figure 7).

The heat really returns Thursday through Saturday until a Saturday front cools us a bit and brings back a few thunderstorms.

Figure4_05212022
Figure 4: the 500mb map for Tuesday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure5_05212022
Figure 5: the surface analysis map for Monday from NOAA.
Figure3_05212022
Figure 6: the severe and thunderstorm forecast for Monday from the SPC.
Figure6_05212022
Figure 7: the 5 day precipitation total forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure7_05212022
Figure 7: the 5 day snowfall total forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

74°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
30.19 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
57 °F
Humidity
55%
Wind
W 4 mph
Gust
7.5 mph
Wind Chill
74 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
2 PM
83°F
Thunderstorms
Today
3 PM
82°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
4 PM
82°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
81°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
80°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
73°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 PM
71°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
68°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
66°F
Partly cloudy w/ t-storms
Tomorrow
12 AM
65°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
64°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Thunderstorms

Thursday

79 °F

Mostly cloudy; a couple of brief showers late this morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Friday

82 °F

Periods of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday

90 °F

A blend of sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

91 °F

Variable clouds with a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

91 °F

Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in spots late in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:34 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM

Based on AccuWeather data