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Wed Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snow totals, warmth ahead

In Brief:

Snow totals and a real warm up coming!

Wednesday Update:

Confession, I thought THIS storm would be quite minor as well.  It turned out to be more significant than major models supported until overnight before the snow began.  Figures 1 update and 2 update show that Longmont received about 3.5 inches over a day of time.  The snow compacted and melted so there never was more than about 1-2 inches on the ground at one time. Still, travel was a mess!

We now warm up quickly and "may" get close to or break 80F Monday/Tuesday next week.  More later!

figure1u_04052023
Figure 1 update: the new snowfall totals (10:1 ratio) up to Tuesday 7am - from CoCoRaHS.com.
figure2u_04052023
Figure 2 update: the new snowfall totals (10:1 ratio) up to Wednesday 7am - from CoCoRaHS.com.

End Wednesday update:

Forecast Discussion:

We get another beautiful weekend (except for wind and fire danger at times). A cold front arrives Monday afternoon with a rapid drop in temperatures and increase in precipitation chances (Figure 1).  It should start out as rain changing to snow overnight. You can see the cold front and approaching precipitation in Figure 2.  At present we should see 1-2 inches along I-25. I'll update here if snow amounts look like they will pile up more (like our last storm).

figure1_04012023
Figure 1: The 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure2_04012023
Figure 2: the NWS surface forecast map for Monday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

A second, and at present smaller, storm arrives on Wednesday/Thursday (of course - Figure 1). These two systems drop between 1/4th and 1/2th inch of liquid on the I-25 corridor (Figure 3). The GFS gives us a total, for the two systems, of 1-3 inches (Figure 4) while the GFS hints at for 3-5 inches (Figure 5).  These systems are still quite a ways out.  I'll keep you updated here!

By end of the week we are dry again with Spring temperatures returning.

figure3_04012023
Figure 3: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure4_04012023
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure5_04012023
Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the Canadian model and tropicaltidbits.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

63°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.18 Steady
Visibility
5 miles
Dewpoint
55 °F
Humidity
76%
Wind
NNW 1.1 mph
Gust
1.7 mph
Wind Chill
63 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
70°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
76°F
Sunny
Today
10 AM
82°F
Sunny
Today
11 AM
86°F
Sunny
Today
12 PM
89°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
91°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
92°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
92°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Today
4 PM
93°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
5 PM
93°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
91°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
89°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

93 °F

Partly sunny with a passing shower this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

62 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Monday

94 °F

Some sun, then increasing clouds with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly clear

Monday Night

59 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

92 °F

Sun through high clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

72 °F

Times of sun and clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon; thunderstorms can bring hail and damaging winds


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

58 °F

An evening thunderstorm; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

86 °F

Warmer with variable cloudiness; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

58 °F

Clearing


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:42 AM
Sunset
8:30 PM

Based on AccuWeather data