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Wed Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snow totals, warmth ahead

In Brief:

Snow totals and a real warm up coming!

Wednesday Update:

Confession, I thought THIS storm would be quite minor as well.  It turned out to be more significant than major models supported until overnight before the snow began.  Figures 1 update and 2 update show that Longmont received about 3.5 inches over a day of time.  The snow compacted and melted so there never was more than about 1-2 inches on the ground at one time. Still, travel was a mess!

We now warm up quickly and "may" get close to or break 80F Monday/Tuesday next week.  More later!

figure1u_04052023
Figure 1 update: the new snowfall totals (10:1 ratio) up to Tuesday 7am - from CoCoRaHS.com.
figure2u_04052023
Figure 2 update: the new snowfall totals (10:1 ratio) up to Wednesday 7am - from CoCoRaHS.com.

End Wednesday update:

Forecast Discussion:

We get another beautiful weekend (except for wind and fire danger at times). A cold front arrives Monday afternoon with a rapid drop in temperatures and increase in precipitation chances (Figure 1).  It should start out as rain changing to snow overnight. You can see the cold front and approaching precipitation in Figure 2.  At present we should see 1-2 inches along I-25. I'll update here if snow amounts look like they will pile up more (like our last storm).

figure1_04012023
Figure 1: The 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure2_04012023
Figure 2: the NWS surface forecast map for Monday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

A second, and at present smaller, storm arrives on Wednesday/Thursday (of course - Figure 1). These two systems drop between 1/4th and 1/2th inch of liquid on the I-25 corridor (Figure 3). The GFS gives us a total, for the two systems, of 1-3 inches (Figure 4) while the GFS hints at for 3-5 inches (Figure 5).  These systems are still quite a ways out.  I'll keep you updated here!

By end of the week we are dry again with Spring temperatures returning.

figure3_04012023
Figure 3: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure4_04012023
Figure 4: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the GFS and weather5280.com
figure5_04012023
Figure 5: the 5 day precipitation forecast from the Canadian model and tropicaltidbits.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Partly sunny

Partly sunny

72°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
30.02 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
48 °F
Humidity
42%
Wind
ESE 2.7 mph
Gust
7 mph
Wind Chill
72 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
5 PM
72°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
73°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 PM
70°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 PM
66°F
Mostly clear
Today
9 PM
63°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
60°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
58°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
56°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
55°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
54°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
53°F
Clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
51°F
Clear

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

73 °F

Clouds giving way to some sun


Clear

Sunday Night

49 °F

Clear


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

86 °F

Partly sunny and warmer; a thunderstorm around in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

52 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

72 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm around in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday Night

50 °F

Increasing clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Wednesday

67 °F

Some sun, then turning cloudy with a couple of thundershowers in the afternoon


Clear

Wednesday Night

50 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Thursday

75 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Thursday Night

47 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:40 AM
Sunset
7:11 PM

Based on AccuWeather data