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Thur Update: The Front Range Forecast: Cool with afternoon storms

In Brief:

Best rain chances Thursday, then daily afternoon storms and a warm-up.

Thursday Update:

Hello again from the northern Rocky Mountains!  A plume of deep/rich tropical moisture is placed over the state this Thursday (Green arrow and white/purple coloration in Figure 2 update). Precipitatable water is pretty high.  Rain and (non-severe except further out on the eastern plains) thunderstorms should be pretty widespread.  For the rest of the week, moisture levels will drop a bit, but daily afternoon storms will be occurring in the mountains midday and the lower elevations mid-afternoon calming down by sunset.

Independence Day Forecast: there will be chances of storms mid-afternoon but drying out by about 7-8pm.  For Longmont and Broomfield, the weather at 9pm (just before fireworks) will be 77F, a 5% chance of thunderstorms, partly cloud skies, with winds from the north about 5mph.  Pretty awesome!  If this chances, I'll hop back on and update! Enjoy the celebration!

Figure2u_06302022
Figure 2 update: the water vapor satellite image from Thursday and the NWS.

End Thursday update.

Saturday Update:

A remarkable cold front has slipped down over the state.  Temperatures feel chilly after the recent periods of summer heat. We should see chilly rain with upslope flow behind the front this weekend (Figure 1 update). A warm up begins on Monday with Tuesday being the driest day of the week.  After that we get very typical summer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm chances (you can see the afternoon pulses of elevated rain chances).

I'm getting away this week to camp.  I don't expect any big surprises in the weather and will keep updates coming as needed.  Always be careful when you hear thunder! (Note, Independence Day looks pretty warm but not too stormy at this time.)

Figure1u_06252022
Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Saturday update.

Forecast Discussion:

There is one last chance of thunderstorms (until about Thursday or Friday) on Sunday (Figure 1). Further, there is a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) that a few of these storms Sunday may produce damaging straight line winds (damaging hail and tornadoes are not in the forecast) for areas north and west of Denver (Figure 2).  This is due to ample daytime heating and an above average amount of atmospheric moisture in place over the state (Figure 3 and green coloration in Figure 4).

Figure1_06192022
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure2_06192022
Figure 2: the severe weather forecast from the SPC for Sunday.
Figure3_06192022
Figure 3: the surface map analysis from the NWS and NOAA for Sunday.
Figure4_06192022
Figure 4: the precipitatable water anomaly for Sunday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Figure 1 shows that storm chances drop to zero at the start of the week (but thankfully temperatures don't go crazy like they have recently). The moisture gets swept to the south and east of the state (Figure 5). Still, over the next five days (Figure 6), not a lot of water is expected to hit any particular spot. Storm motion will be quite quick to the northeast on Sunday - flooding is only a risk over recent burn scars in the mountains. 

Later in the week, moisture is expected to REALLY make a come back with better and better storm chances each afternoon until the weekend which should be very stormy.  Prepare for rain next weekend!

Figure5_06192022
Figure 5: the precipitatable water anomaly for Tuesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure6_06192022
Figure 6: the rainfall total for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

75°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
30.19 Falling
Visibility
10 miles
Dewpoint
56 °F
Humidity
51%
Wind
WSW 3.5 mph
Gust
7.5 mph
Wind Chill
75 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
2 PM
77°F
Thunderstorms
Today
3 PM
79°F
Thunderstorms
Today
4 PM
79°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
79°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
78°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
77°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
73°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 PM
71°F
Partly cloudy
Today
10 PM
68°F
Partly cloudy
Today
11 PM
66°F
Partly cloudy w/ t-storms
Tomorrow
12 AM
65°F
Partly cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
64°F
Partly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Thunderstorms

Thursday

79 °F

Mostly cloudy; a couple of brief showers late this morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots this afternoon


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in spots this evening; otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Friday

82 °F

Periods of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Friday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday

90 °F

A blend of sun and clouds


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

59 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

91 °F

Variable clouds with a thunderstorm in parts of the area in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

58 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

91 °F

Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in spots late in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

59 °F

A thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:34 AM
Sunset
8:34 PM

Based on AccuWeather data