Skip to content

Sun Update: The Front Range Forecast: Warm and dry for the start

Figure2u_09252022
Figure 3 update: the NHC forecast for Hurricane Ian.

In Brief:

A warm dry week cooled by weak fronts that bring showers at the end.

Sunday Update:

Things remain cool and quiet around Longmont and Broomfield. We will be a bit warmer than normal (in the 70's now) through mid-week. A series of weak cool fronts will moderate temperatures a bit on Tuesday, then more so going into next weekend (Figure 2 update). We don't see fair rainfall chances (except Tuesday) return until the weekend.

In my weather video this week at Longmont Public Media, I predicted a major eastern Gulf of Mexico hurricane this week.  The next name in line was Hermine. But a minimal tropical storm formed and lasted 48 hours near the Canary Islands that grabbed that name. Tropical Storm Ian is predicted to become a major storm making landfall somewhere in western Florida around Thursday PM (Figure 3 update). This will be a news maker.

Figure1u_09252022
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure2u_09252022
Figure 3 update: the NHC forecast for Hurricane Ian.

End Sunday update.

Tuesday Update:

The initial cold front will pass around 5pm Tuesday. There are small rain chances overnight but the more steady rain should begin after noon Wednesday when a secondary cold front push comes through. Rain chances start to drop again around noon Thursday. Total precipitation around a quarter to a half inch should hit around Longmont and Broomfield (Figure 1 update). Highs should remain in the lower 60'sF Wednesday and Thursday.

Enjoy the right-on-time taste of Fall!

Figure1u_09202022
Figure 1 update: precipitation forecast for the next 4 days from the GFS and weather5280.com

 

End Tuesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

Hold on, the end of summer is in sight.  We may still get a couple of additional 90F days this year. A strong front arrives Tuesday evening dropping temperatures about 25F (Figure 1). The heat we have now comes from the giant high pressure dome over the middle of the nation (Figure 2).

Figure1_09172022
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver.
Figure2_09172022
Figure 2: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Changes of showers pick up slowly after the front with a mostly wet/drizzly Wednesday with a few storms Thursday (Figure 1). The high doesn't move much (very stubborn) but a trough digs in hard from the northwest (Figure 3). Showers will stretch across Colorado ahead of this trough (Figure 4).

Rainfall over the next 5 (and 10, shown in Figure 5), unfortunately remains heaviest to the west of the Divide.

Fall Arrives!

Fall officially begins (astronomically) September 22, 2022 at 7:04PM.  That is within a day of when it begins to "Feel" like Fall as well. Enjoy!

Tropical Update:

Hurricane Fiona, discussed in this week's video forecast at Longmont Public Media, is, happily, predicted to curve away from the U.S. and remain out to sea (Figure 6).

Figure3_09172022
Figure 3: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Thursday early morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure4_09172022
Figure 4: the 6 hour precipitation forecast for early morning Thursday from tropicaltidbits and the GFS.
Figure6_09172022
Figure 6: The NHC forecast for Hurricane Fiona.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
Read more


Comments

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

64°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
30.36 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
46 °F
Humidity
51%
Wind
NNE 1.7 mph
Gust
3.8 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
1 PM
66°F
Sunny
Today
2 PM
67°F
Sunny
Today
3 PM
68°F
Sunny
Today
4 PM
69°F
Sunny
Today
5 PM
68°F
Sunny
Today
6 PM
65°F
Sunny
Today
7 PM
62°F
Clear
Today
8 PM
59°F
Clear
Today
9 PM
57°F
Clear
Today
10 PM
55°F
Clear
Today
11 PM
53°F
Clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
52°F
Clear

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Wednesday

69 °F

Pleasant with plenty of sun


Clear

Wednesday Night

46 °F

Clear


Mostly sunny

Thursday

71 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and pleasant


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

44 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

63 °F

Partly sunny


Mostly clear

Friday Night

43 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Saturday

70 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Clear

Saturday Night

44 °F

Clear


Sunny

Sunday

72 °F

Pleasant with plenty of sunshine


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

47 °F

Mainly clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:01 AM
Sunset
6:36 PM

Based on AccuWeather data