In Brief:
Summer heat, 'monsoon' storms. Some severe weather possible again.
Saturday Update:
Moisture levels are good and winds are such that strong storms are possible again today along and east of I-25 (Figure 1). There is a marginal risk of hail and high winds producing storms up into the mountains and a slight risk along I-25 and eastward (yellow coloring).
For Sunday and Monday, there is a Marginal risk down to around Ft. Collins. Since these areas usually expand by the time we get to those days, be alert for more hail and high winds for the start of the week as well!
End Saturday update.
Forecast Discussion:
The ridge holds strong near the four corners area through the weekend. We'll see temperatures about 2-6 degrees above normal through Monday (Figure 1). On Thursday, the ridge is sitting just a bit to the south of that location and a trough is rippling over north side of the ridge over our state (red line - Figure 2). There is moisture (grey shading and arrows - Figure 3) flowing in from the tropics (the "North American monsoon" through some meteorologists don't like that term being used since this is a very different mechanism from the more famous Indian Monsoon.
Storms will be fairly scattered across the state today (Figure 4). With the trough helping, there is a chance for severe weather in spots near the Front Range (Figure 5). Hail and high thunderstorms winds are the primary risk (still!!).
The Longer Range forecast:
Going forward, there are afternoon storm chances every day. Severe chances are low going forward. Most of the state should get a bit of rain with local areas getting over an inch if they get a direct hit of a slow moving storm (Figure 6).
