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Sat Update: The Front Range Forecast: Warm now, wet/snow Wed/Thur

In Brief:

Warm weather again, a mid-week storm on tap.

Saturday Update:

We received a bit of snow and very little rain from our week-end storm (Figure 1 update). Longmont saw about 1/2 inch of snow. Boulder picked up around an inch.

We rocket to the upper 60's for the first part of the week until the next storm system approaches (Figure 2 update).  We cool only to the lower 40's for highs with rain and a couple of inches of snow possible Thursday.  This is still fairly far out and temperatures are, again, marginal.

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Figure 1 update: the snowfall reports from CoCoRaHS for Boulder county.
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Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com

End Saturday update.

Forecast Discussion:

We reach temperatures near 60F on Wednesday before a cold front arrives late Wednesday night/Thursday morning (Figure 1). Rain chances slowly rise on Thursday becoming a good chance of showers by late afternoon changing to snow overnight (green and blue boxes).

This storm is powered by an approaching trough that will sweep by quickly (Figure 2). By Thursday night into Friday morning, there are snow chances across much of the state (Figure 3).

I'll return tomorrow for a snowfall roundup if things vary much from the forecast below, but the GFS shows a strong gradient of almost no snow along I-25 and eastward and healthy totals in thee nearby foothills (Figure 4).  Much of the precipitation that falls along the interstate will come down earlier as rain (Figure 5) with 0.25-0.75 inch of liquid in Longomont.

There IS some uncertainty in the forecast still. The NAM has much less snow around I-25 and into the Foothills. The big snow winners are out in the NE corner of the state and in the OK/TX panhandles. 

More later!

figure1_03062024
Figure 1: the 10-day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the 500mb upper air map Thursday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

 

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Figure 3: the Friday surface forecast from the NWS.
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Figure 4: the 10:1 snowfall ratio forecast for the week-end storm from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 5: the precipitation forecast for the week-end storm from the GFS and weather5280.com
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Figure 6: the 10:1 snowfall ratio forecast for the week-end storm from the NAM and weather5280.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

We pop back to the 50's then 60's by the weekend and into next week and remain dry until another Wednesday/Thursday storm arrives. At least we are getting some water back into the region!

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

62°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.65 Falling
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
59 °F
Humidity
88%
Wind
SW 1.6 mph
Gust
3.2 mph
Wind Chill
62 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
69°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
76°F
Mostly sunny
Today
10 AM
81°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
85°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
88°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
90°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
92°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
90°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
88°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
5 PM
85°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
84°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
82°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Saturday

92 °F

Warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine; a thunderstorm around this afternoon


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

57 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Sunday

93 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and very warm


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

56 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

94 °F

Partly sunny and hot; breezy in the afternoon


Clear

Monday Night

55 °F

Windy in the evening; clear


Partly sunny

Tuesday

80 °F

Partly sunny and cooler; breezy in the afternoon with a thundershower in spots


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday Night

52 °F

Mostly cloudy with a shower in the area late


Cloudy

Wednesday

75 °F

A thunderstorm around in the morning; otherwise, cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

55 °F

Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm late


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:30 AM
Sunset
8:32 PM

Based on AccuWeather data