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Tue Update: The Front Range Forecast: Snow totals, warming and dry

In Brief:

Slow warm up and dry on the Plains.

Tuesday Update:

Longmont saw 3.2 to 4 inches of snow. Boulder did better with 4-6 inches overall. (Figure 1 update). Not shown in a figure: Ft. Collins saw 3-5 inches. Estes Park picked up 3-5.3 inches. Western Denver saw 2.5-4.5 inches while the Airport areas got about 2.2-2.4 inches.

We have mostly dry and warming conditions for much of the rest of the week.

 

figure1_11292022
Figure 1 update: the CoCoRaHS 24 hour snowfall report up to 7am Tuesday.

End Tuesday Update.

Forecast Discussion:

A couple of storms are going to make the end of the Holiday week and start of the workweek interesting. A weak cold front arrives around sunset Saturday and kicks off a brief period of light snow at lower elevations (a Trace to 1.5 inches) and a 1-3 inches in the mountains between about 9pm and 4am Sunday (Figure 1). Light snow totals seem widespread by Sunday morning (Figure 2, the GFS and Figure 3 the NAM).

We warm up again for a couple of days, then the next storm hits...

figure1_11262022
Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
figure3_11262022
Figure 2: the GFS 10:1 snowfall forecast from weather5280 for the next 24 hours.
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Figure 3: the NAM 10:1 snowfall forecast from weather5280 for the next 24 hours.

The Longer Range Forecast

This next storm is powered by a strong shortwave and and a healthy dose of very cold air (Figure 4) again arriving with a sunset-ish front. I try not to forecast details on the next storm until the current storm is done, but it looks like 5-12 inches of snow for the higher mountains, 3-5 inches for the I-25 corridor, and 1-3 inches out on the eastern Plains. Tuesday morning will be another rough commute.

figure2_11262022
Figure 4: the 500mb upper air forecast map from the GFS and
figure5_11262022
Figure 5: the GFS 10:1 snowfall forecast from weather5280 for the next week.

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org).
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Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

21°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
30.04 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
10 °F
Humidity
61%
Wind
ENE 1.6 mph
Gust
3.3 mph
Wind Chill
21 °F

12 Hour Forecast

Today
3 PM
24°F
Sunny
Today
4 PM
22°F
Sunny
Today
5 PM
19°F
Mostly sunny
Today
6 PM
16°F
Mostly clear
Today
7 PM
13°F
Clear
Today
8 PM
10°F
Clear
Today
9 PM
8°F
Clear
Today
10 PM
7°F
Clear
Today
11 PM
5°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
5°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
5°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
4°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Tuesday

24 °F

Sunny


Cold

Tuesday Night

2 °F

Mainly clear and frigid


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

38 °F

Mostly sunny and not as cold


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

16 °F

Mainly clear


Sunny

Thursday

41 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Clear

Thursday Night

17 °F

Clear


Mostly cloudy

Friday

48 °F

Thickening clouds


Mostly cloudy

Friday Night

30 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

47 °F

Partly sunny


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

23 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:10 AM
Sunset
5:18 PM

Based on AccuWeather data