Skip to content
Join our Newsletter

Wednesday Update: The Front Range Forecast: Dry and warming with windy (fire danger?) days

The Video Forecast for this Week

In Brief:

Steady warming with afternoon winds + fire danger.

Wednesday Update:

As temperatures warm, winds remain.  The NWS has a new Red Flag Warning for the areas shaded in red (Figure 1 update):

Red Flag Warning

Issued: 2:14 PM Apr. 13, 2022 – National Weather Service

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS FROM BOULDER AND DENVER EASTWARD THROUGH EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Red Flag Warning for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Thursday.

* Timing...Late morning through early evening Thursday.

* Winds...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 14 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will have the potential to spread rapidly. Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.

_____________________________________________________________________________

It looks like we warm to around 70 on the weekend (Figure 2 update) then near 80 next week.  No really precipitation is likely for the next 7-10 days (there IS a small chance of something 'interesting' around Tuesday/Wednesday next week.  

Figure2u_04132022
Figure 1 update: the red flag warnings for Thursday from the NWS.
Figure1u_04132022
Figure 2 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Wednesday update.

Forecast Discussion:

We'll start with the NWS issued Red Flag Warnings for Saturday and Sunday:

Red Flag Warning:

Issued: 4:44 AM Apr. 9, 2022 – National Weather Service

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...

The National Weather Service in Denver has issued a Fire Weather Watch for wind and low relative humidity, which is in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* Timing...11 AM MDT until 7 PM MDT today and Sunday.

* Winds...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph today. Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph on Sunday. (See Figure 1).

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Any fire that develops will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning should be avoided, as well as any activity that may produce a spark and start a fast moving wildfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior. A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible Red Flag Warnings.

______________________________________

Our first of three fronts arrives around midnight Saturday into Sunday.  This will cool us about 20 degrees and kick up a few showers, a bit of mountain snow, and bring more wind (Figure 1 and 2). The chance of rain along I-25 and snow in the mountains is pretty small and short lived (Figure 3).  We warm to the 60's for the start of the week.

Figure1_04092022
Figure 1: the 10 m (surface) wind speeds 5pm Saturday from the HRRR and weather5280.com
Figure2_04092022
Figure 2: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
Figure3_04092022
Figure 3: the surface map forecast for Sat/Sun midnight from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Our next front arrives around noon on Tuesday (Figure 2). This front will drop temperatures about 15 degrees and bring a better chance of rain to the lower elevations and snow to the mountains (Figure 4). The GFS still doesn't give the I-25 corridor much rain, but drops 1-2 inches of water to the northern mountains (Figure 5). Other models are a bit 'wetter.' The good snow totals only accumulate at the higher elevations of the central and northern mountains (Figure 6). Spring is getting underway in 'fits and starts.'

 

Figure4_04092022
Figure 4: the surface map forecast for Tuesday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure5_04092022
Figure 5: the precipitation forecast for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure6_04092022
Figure 6: the snowfall (10:1 ratio) forecast for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
Read more


Comments


Current Weather

Clear

Clear

76°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.69 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
32 °F
Humidity
20%
Wind
SW 2.4 mph
Gust
6 mph
Wind Chill
76 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
72°F
Clear
Today
2 AM
69°F
Clear
Today
3 AM
67°F
Clear
Today
4 AM
65°F
Clear
Today
5 AM
63°F
Clear
Today
6 AM
61°F
Sunny
Today
7 AM
66°F
Sunny
Today
8 AM
73°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
80°F
Sunny
Today
10 AM
84°F
Sunny
Today
11 AM
88°F
Sunny
Today
12 PM
91°F
Sunny

7 Day Forecast

Hot

Friday

100 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and very hot with the temperature approaching the record of 101 set in 1989; caution advised if outside for extended periods of time


Clear

Friday Night

61 °F

Clear and mild


Sunny

Saturday

99 °F

Hot with plenty of sunshine; gusty winds, low humidity and dry brush result in a high fire threat


Clear

Saturday Night

62 °F

Clear and mild


Mostly sunny

Sunday

93 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and very warm; breezy in the afternoon; gusty winds, low humidity and dry brush result in a high fire threat


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

54 °F

Mainly clear with a thunderstorm in parts of the area; breezy in the evening


Mostly cloudy

Monday

77 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

55 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly early


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

80 °F

Pleasant with intervals of clouds and sunshine


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday Night

60 °F

Turning cloudy in the evening followed by late-night low clouds


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:31 AM
Sunset
8:33 PM

Based on AccuWeather data