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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – August 11th, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

What are you doing here reading about the weather, instead of enjoying it outside?! It is warm to almost hot, but not too bad. Really clear blue skies returned. Winds are mild. It is really nice! (But I grew up in Phoenix... so this is typical Halloween to Thanksgiving Day weather to me.)

Briefly, Figure 1 shows the very dry air over northern Colorado (reds and oranges). The upper level high has become quite stout (the big blue H in Figure 2). You can catch a glimpse of the merged tropical systems way down in the southwest corner of the image.  That moisture might return next week with the next approaching (stronger) upper level trough.

Smoke is thick off to the west and north of our state. It is currently very light over Colorado. I don't see it returning for a few days (Figure 3) at least.

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image from Friday night. Reds/Oranges are dry air, greys/whites are moist air regions.

Figure 2: The 500mb upper air analysis for Friday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 3: The HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model forecast of smoke at all levels for Saturday night.

The longer range forecast:

There will be a tiny bit of moisture and a minor upper level short wave on Sunday that gives us a small chance of an afternoon storm (Figure 4) - but I wouldn't place bets on it. We hover around 90° F each day until that next upper level (stronger) trough approaches on Tuesday. We only drop to lower 80's F for a high and have a small increase in storm chances after that. It is just quiet!

Figure 4: the next 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Partly sunny

Partly sunny

64°F

UV Index
2 Low
Pressure
29.89 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
22%
Wind
SE 4.6 mph
Gust
11 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 PM
61°F
Cloudy
Today
7 PM
59°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 PM
57°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
43°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
42°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
40°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
39°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy

Thursday

65 °F

Becoming cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

35 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

71 °F

Pleasant with partial sunshine


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

76 °F

Rather cloudy; breezy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

46 °F

Partly cloudy


Cloudy

Monday

60 °F

Cloudy and cooler with a shower in spots; windy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Monday Night

41 °F

Breezy in the evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:58 AM
Sunset
7:57 PM

Based on AccuWeather data