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Forecast Discussion:
Though I'm camping these first two weeks of July, I got enough bandwidth and time to put together a more normal discussion. This post will cover the 4th and 5th.
There is a trickle of moisture coming up from the tropics that will interact with the next storm Wednesday night and Thursday (Figure 1). The forecast weather map for Wednesday morning shows the cold front that will push down into the state about as far as the Palmer Divide Wednesday into Thursday (Figure 2).
Tragically, fires are getting the upper hand in places in the west again and the forecast smoke map for later Wednesday shows a complex pattern of smoke at different levels around the state (Figure 3).
For Thursday, the front will be in place, some moisture will be pushed back to the west behind the front - and we'll see a chance of severe weather. The severe risk will be marginal (1 on a scale of 1-5) for a few isolated cells that may produce large hail and strong damaging winds by evening (Figure 4).
The amount of rain across the state by Thursday afternoon will be spotty and based on where thunderstorms form. Some places will see nothing, while others may pull a quarter of an inch or more. Storm motion will be slow since the upper level steering winds under the Western ridge are going to be fairly light (Figure 5).
The longer range forecast:
Longmont cools to the upper 80's Wednesday and Thursday, then climb to the upper 90's F (it will be 100+F on the eastern planes nearby). A few afternoon storms may wander out of the mountains most days. It is a fairly quiet summer pattern again!
