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Forecast Discussion:
We had severe weather! I need to get some hours back into life, so lets look at the numbers and the return to quiet weather - briefly- today.
The front has now pushed down deep to the southern counties of Colorado. Cool stable air has filled in across Colorado. Severe weather is raging across Nebraska and Kansas as the upper air trough passes us and heads east. We have the added stabilizing factor of sinking air on the western side of the trough that has passed (figure 1).
Before things calmed down, we had many reports of severe weather - tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds. Figure 2 shows the reports to the NWS by Tuesday evening.
There were two tornadoes in the state, one in Weld county and one in Lincoln county.
There were 66 reports of large hail.
And there were 7 reports of damaging wind events. Wow.
Today, a ridge approaches as the trough departs (blue and red lines respectively, Figure 3). But with warming temperatures, moisture in place as well as weak up slope flow behind the front, thunderstorms are possible this afternoon- but nothing severe (Figure 4).
The longer range forecast:
We warm from here *almost* to 90F on Friday, then cool a bit on the weekend. There are chances of afternoon thunderstorms almost every day. Sunday is looking more stormy.
Summer begins on Thursday June 21st, 4:07am.
