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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – June 29, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

We did it - well DIA, at least, tied the all time high temperature record of 105F (Figure 1).  Afternoon clouds building up (with virga - rain that evaporates as it falls creating strong down draft winds) cut off our chance to break the record. But it was close.

Today we have a front draped over the northern tier of counties and another afternoon chance of just a few normally strong thunderstorms (Figure 2). Smoke from Utah and local fires will make the skies milky (Figure 3) as the next trough moves in to cool us down and create a better chance of storms this weekend (Figure 4).

Figure 1: The now 5 times the high temperature in Denver was 105F - tweeted by the NWS.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Friday afternoon. From NCEP.

Figure 3: The HRRR model forecast for smoke at all levels for Friday afternoon. From NOAA.gov

Figure 4: The 500mb upper air analysis for Friday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

Amazingly this next front and trough will drop us to the lower 70'sF on Saturday with a midday to evening chance of rain (mainly up slope fueled showers and thunderstorms). This model gives us a whopping 1/4th of an inch.  We'll look at other models tomorrow.   Unfortunately, by Monday, we're back to the lower 90'sF for the Independence Day week.

Note- I will be camping the first two weeks of July.  Due to the need of a vacation, and limited bandwidth,  these forecast discussions will be more text based and, maybe, not quite as comprehensive.  (This column has been going for more than a year now!!).

Figure 5: the next 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

47°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.91 Steady
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
37 °F
Humidity
69%
Wind
ESE 2.3 mph
Gust
4 mph
Wind Chill
47 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
46°F
Mostly clear
Today
2 AM
44°F
Mostly clear
Today
3 AM
43°F
Mostly clear
Today
4 AM
42°F
Mostly clear
Today
5 AM
40°F
Mostly clear
Today
6 AM
39°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 AM
42°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 AM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
59°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
11 AM
64°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
12 PM
67°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Saturday

64 °F

Cooler with clouds giving way to some sun


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

39 °F

Turning out clear


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Cloudy most of the time, breezy and warmer


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

47 °F

Rather cloudy and windy


Windy

Monday

60 °F

Very windy; cloudy and cooler


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

41 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday

59 °F

Cool with times of clouds and sun; windy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Times of clouds and sun


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:55 AM
Sunset
7:59 PM

Based on AccuWeather data