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Forecast Discussion:
Our storm (with some ex-Sergio moisture incorporated in it) is off to the east and very dry/sinking air is in place over Colorado (red colors in Figure 1). The surface map for today (Figure 2) has a low to our southwest that is kicking off storms in Arizona and southern New Mexico. That instability and moisture is forecasted to stay far south of us.
Figure 3 is the upper air map and the trough that has lower heights over the state, which makes our weather cooler than normal. That cut-off low over Arizona is the feature generating those storms. Interesting set up!
The longer range forecast:
We stay cool and dry for a long time. Figure 4 shows the ridge to our west and lower heights still over Colorado Friday AM. Figure 5 shows the ridge next Monday still dominate over the West.
El Nino update
Figure 6 is a quick look at the El Nino status. It is clear that El Nino is coming on (and is here now). The forecast off into next year keeps us in El Nino conditions for a long time to come (Figure 7). The winter forecasts I'm seeing have Colorado cooler than normal (by a bit) and wetter than normal (somewhat). More later as things shape up!
