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Saturday Update: The Front Range Forecast: A warm windy front with midweek showers

Saturday Update:

 

We have a dry wind kicked up by a nearby front. There is a fire that is forcing evacuations near NCAR.  Winds will die rapidly tonight with warmer weather Sunday and Monday.  There is a storm expected to brin about 1/4th to 1/3rd inch of precipitation. More showers are possible Thursday and Friday.  Spring showers!

End Saturday Update.

In Brief

Another storm moves through the state Sunday/Monday with mainly mountain snow, then more Spring-time weather.

Forecast Discussion:

Let's look back on our mid-week storm first.  In Boulder county, the two day snow totals from Longmont were about 1 to 1.5 inches.  Broomfield did a bit better getting about 2-4 inches. Boulder only received 3-5 inches but the mountains above Boulder saw 14-16 inches. Wow. (Figures 1 and 2.)  The great news is areas along I-25 received about 1/2 to 3/4th inch of rain.  This is the wonderful combination of water and warmth needed to bring the plant world back to life!

This weekend will see comfortable 60's for highs until a cold front sweeps the state in the early afternoon Sunday. A period of rain then snow will impact most of Colorado Sunday night through Monday evening (Figure 3). Monday will see highs in the upper 30's or lower 40's at the lower elevations.  This is not great for accumulating snow along I-25 but it should be a moderate (not big) snow for the mountains again.

 

Figure1_03192922
Figure 1: the CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of Wednesday AM.

 

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Figure 2: the CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of Thursday AM.
Figure3_03192922
Figure 3: the 10 day graphical forecast from weatherunderground.com for Denver, CO.

The Longer Range Forecast:

This next system is powered by a healthy trough moving across the state on Monday (Figure 4). On Sunday, the system is binging snow to the western slopes of Colorado and much of Utah (Figure 5). There are even widespread chances of thunder storms (non-severe) Sunday night into Monday (Figure 6). On Monday, there will be a mix of rain and snow on the Colorado eastern plains and snow for the mountains and communities along the Front Range and I-25 (Figure 7).

There has been a disagreement between the models for many days with the GFS bringing the low into eastern and southeastern Colorado.  That would have given the Front Range and Denver a significant winter storm+moisture.  The Euro and NAM have the low doing its "best" while sitting in eastern and northeastern New Mexico.  By that, the NAM (Figure 8) has spotty snow totals along I-25 north of Denver (with many locations not receiving any accumulating snow). Denver may get 1-3 inches in places on the western and southern sides of the city. The GFS creates a snow-free spot east of Fort Collins with 2-3 inches along I-25 north of Denver (Figure 9).  The GFS also puts 4-8 inches in the foothills west of Boulder, Denver and south of Denver. Recent runs do see the GFS moving the low further south like the other models.  The GFS precipitation totals of 1/4th around Fort Collins to 1 inch down to southwest Denver (Figure 10) is still probably overdone.

Overall, expect a cold, windy, couple of days with some rain showers probably turning to snow late Sunday with little accumulation along I-25 and 3-6 inches as a maximum around Nederland.  As another example, Estes Park may see 2-4 inches.

 

Figure4_03192922
Figure 4: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday noon from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
Figure5_03192922
Figure 5: the forecast surface analysis for Monday noon from NCEP.
Figure6_03192922
Figure 6: the risk of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK for Day 2, Sunday.
Figure7_03192922
Figure 7: the forecast surface analysis for Sunday noon from NCEP.
Figure8_03192922
Figure 8: the 5 day snowfall (10:1 ratio) total from the NAM and weather5280.com
Figure9_03192922
Figure 9: the 5 day snowfall (10:1 ratio)total from the GFS and weather5280.com
Figure10_03192922
Figure 10: the 5 day precipitation total from the GFS and weather5280.com

 


About the Author: John Ensworth

John Ensworth used to work from Longmont as the PI for the NASA through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies). He now teaches technology, algebra, astronomy, meteorology, film school, and Lego robotics to middle/high school.
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Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

74°F

UV Index
10 Very High
Pressure
30.19 Steady
Visibility
6 miles
Dewpoint
61 °F
Humidity
64%
Wind
NE 2.7 mph
Gust
5.8 mph
Wind Chill
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7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Tuesday

76 °F

A morning shower; otherwise, some sun; a few t-storms, some severe this afternoon; storms can bring flash flooding, hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado


Partly cloudy w/ t-storms

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A strong evening thunderstorm; otherwise, partly cloudy


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Clear


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Based on AccuWeather data