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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 12, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Our storm has roared eastward leaving very cold air in its wake (Figure 1). Monday we saw temperatures about 25°F below normal. Today we'll only be about 7 degrees below normal. Tomorrow we are back to normal (mid 50's F for a high).

For tonight, the trough of our past storm is deep down into Texas and a ridge is building in quickly form the west. That will also decrease the terrible fire-blasting winds in California (Figure 2).

Figure 1: The current surface map from Monday p.m. and the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday a.m. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

If you look back a day, you'll see that next Saturday was just a cool blip on the radar. Today, a more major storm is in the offing (Figure 3). This seems to give us 2-4 inches of snow on the weatherunderground model. Taking a look at the storm totals from the GSF through Sunday p.m. (Figure 4); we are in the 2-3" zone on that model (but this is still many days off). We'll keep an eye on it!

Figure 3: the piece of the next 10 days of the graphical forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado for the next 6 days, through Sunday p.m. Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

77°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.84 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
36 °F
Humidity
23%
Wind
WNW 5.4 mph
Gust
12.5 mph
Wind Chill
77 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 PM
76°F
Showers
Today
7 PM
75°F
Showers
Today
8 PM
71°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 PM
68°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
64°F
Mostly clear
Today
11 PM
61°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
58°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
57°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
55°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
54°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
52°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
51°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Sunday

79 °F

Partly sunny with a brief shower or two this afternoon


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

49 °F

Breezy this evening; otherwise, mainly clear


Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Monday

71 °F

Not as warm with clouds and sunshine; a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Thunderstorms

Monday Night

47 °F

Cloudy with a couple of thundershowers


Thunderstorms

Tuesday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly later


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

37 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Wednesday

70 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Mainly clear


Partly sunny

Thursday

82 °F

Warmer with partial sunshine


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

44 °F

Mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:41 AM
Sunset
8:14 PM

Based on AccuWeather data